Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT
COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN
TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE
W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID
ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT
L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON.

ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY
OVR THE MTNS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH
END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING
EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CU FIELD AOA 5KFT MAY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SCT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL. SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH
NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
APLCHNS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY
WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT
ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...ADS/WOODY!/CEM


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