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919
FXUS61 KLWX 121833
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure returns tonight into Monday. A slow moving low
pressure system will bring more unsettled weather Tuesday into the
middle of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The strong upper low over the northern Mid-Atlantic today has fueled
several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms in northeast
Maryland earlier this afternoon. As of 230PM, scattered showers are
still ongoing in northeast MD, and this along with a few additional
thunderstorms will continue through the late afternoon. Elsewhere,
very light showers east of US-50 are moving through the area, but
not expecting thunderstorms outside of the immediate Western Shore
area. Precipitation wanes early this evening, then dissipates by
late evening as the upper low moves away. Another cool night as lows
drop to the 40s. Winds veering northeast, then east tonight could
bring in some lower clouds to northeast MD late in the night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure moves across the region Monday, bringing dry
conditions and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Another
area of low pressure approaches from the west Monday night, causing
sky cover to increase and milder lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The middle of the week looks to be very unsettled as that area of
low pressure slowly moves across the region, and a broad mid-level
shortwave also moves overhead. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are forecast each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday, with scattered
showers and a few storms lingering well into the evening. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible that could lead to a few instances of
flooding. At this time, the severe threat looks to be low.

Cloudy skies keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day,
though overnight lows will only drop to the upper 50s to 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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One upper low will be exiting the area Thu afternoon with ridging
building Fri and the next upper trof crossing the area Saturday,
although not as deep/strong as the one on Wednesday. CAPE looks
minimal, so we`re likely just looking at showers and not
thunderstorms. Ridging build again for the second half of next
weekend into early next week. Expect temps at or slightly below
normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue around BWI and
MTN through late afternoon, then precip wanes quickly this evening.
Could see a very light shower at IAD and DCA, but no impacts
expected. Dry at MRB and CHO.

Winds turn northeast this evening, then east overnight, though very
light and could be calm at many locations. This could bring in some
lower clouds to MTN and BWI late tonight, though likely only for
around 3-4 hours around sunrise. Any low clouds burn off by mid
morning Monday.

VFR and dry conditions Monday as southerly winds return.

Unsettled weather likely Tuesday and Wednesday as a slow moving area
of low pressure crosses the region. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday, with
showers and a few storms lingering well into the evening. The
strongest storms could produce sub-VFR conditions at any terminal,
and could also produce gusty winds.

Showers Thu likely producing MVFR cigs.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Scattered showers continue moving across the northern Chesapeake Bay
this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible. Lightning strikes
and small hail are the main threats with any storm. Showers/storms
come to an end late afternoon into early evening.

Gusty northwest winds continue through late afternoon, then winds
decrease quickly this evening. Winds turn northeast to east
overnight, though generally light at 5 knots or less.

High pressure builds over the area Monday, but southerly channeling
is expected to result in SCA conditions over much of the waters
Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Unsettled weather returns to the area as a slow moving area of low
pressure crosses the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. The strongest
storms could produce wind gusts of 35 knots or greater, in addition
to lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for
portions of the waters if these strong storms develop.

SCA conditions likely Thu into Fri.
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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A brief change to northwest winds today has dropped anomalies,
though minor coastal flooding is still likely at sensitive sites
in Annapolis and Straits Point at high tide tonight and Monday
morning. Southerly flow quickly returns Monday and likely
continues through mid week. Additional period of coastal
flooding seem likely in the coming days.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ531-
     532-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ533>537-541>543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...KRR/LFR
MARINE...KRR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR