Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241331 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Following a cold frontal passage earlier this morning, high pressure will begin to build back into the region through the day. Additional weak cold fronts will cross the region Sunday through Tuesday, but with little if any precipitation. High pressure will cross the region Wednesday and then settle over the western Atlantic Ocean late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Partly to mostly sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day with a mix of fair weather cumulus, some terrain driven clouds, and some cirrus. West-northwest winds expected through the day, with gusts up to about 25 mph or so. Temperatures will still be quite warm with highs from the mid 80s to low 90s, however dew points, and therefore humidity, will be falling through the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The remainder of the short term will feature an upper trough settling over the Great Lakes, and surface high pressure over the central US. Northwest surface flow and passing disturbances aloft will bring weak reinforcing cold fronts southwest across the area. With much drier air in place, little if any precip is expected with these fronts, though an isolated shower or t-storm can`t be completely ruled out, especially Monday and Monday night as a little more forcing is present aloft. Otherwise, temperatures will be sliding downward each day, with low-mid 80s Sunday and upper 70s to low 80s Monday. Lows will decline in a similar fashion, with low-mid 60s common tonight, upper 50s to low 60s more likely Sunday night, and mid-upper 50s more common Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cool (for late June) weather to start the long term as an upper trough starts sliding east across the region and high pressure to our west keeps a cool northwest flow in place. The passing trough may result in enough instability to result in a stray shower or t-storm Tuesday, but most spots stay dry. The trough starts moving east away from us Wednesday, with ridging building in from the southwest late in the week as the surface high pushes east and sets up shop off the coast (i.e. a Bermuda high). This will result in temperatures starting to warm back above normal by the end of the week, and an increasing risk of diurnal terrain showers and storms in the mountains by Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR expected through the forecast period. Some gusty west- northwest winds expected this morning (up to 20 knots or so), but winds will gradually diminish late today and especially tonight. An isolated thunderstorm could occur Monday or Tuesday with a weak reinforcing cold front and following upper trough, but odds are low. && .MARINE... High pressure building in behind a cold front will continue to cause SCA gusts today, especially through early afternoon. Will need to watch for potential mixing and resulting SCA gusts Sunday and Monday with multiple weak reinforcing cold fronts moving through. Otherwise, mainly dry through the rest of the forecast period, with just an isolated thunderstorm possible Monday or Tuesday with a weak front and following trough. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Most Coastal Flood Advisories have either been allowed to expire or have been cancelled. Last remaining advisory is for Harford County, with the high tide still to come this morning. After this morning however, water levels should stay below minor flood thresholds for the foreseeable future. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ508. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM/RCM NEAR TERM...MM/RCM SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...MM/RCM MARINE...MM/RCM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM/RCM

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