Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 220759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through the weekend and into next week. Hurricane Maria is expected to remain over the Atlantic well to our southeast through at least early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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500 mb ridge over the Midwest will provide to a subsidence inversion today. Dry and warm weather will result. Highs will run 5-10 degs warmer than normal. Increased sky cvr early this morning as the high clouds appear quite dense on the GOES-16 split window difference product, but should thin out after daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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500 mb ridge over the Midwest will gradually build east through the weekend and be located over LK Ontario by Sun leading to a strengthening subsidence inversion. Dry and warm weather will continue. Highs will continue to run 5-10 degs warmer than normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Latest guidance is now depicting the complete dissipationg of Jose off the coast of New England early next week, preventing any additional impacts. High pressure at the surface and aloft will therefore bring continued warm and dry weather Monday and Tuesday. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday we will need to keep an eye on Hurricane Maria. While not currently expected to impact the region directly, we may get deep enough into its enlarging circulation such that the northeast flow increases, and a stray shower from an outer band is not impossible depending on how close it gets. Odds are not in favor of significant impacts to our region, but nevertheless, Maria`s progress should continue to be monitored until the storm is on its way into the open Atlantic later next week. Please consult the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding the forecast for Hurricane Maria. By Thursday, a cold front looks likely to bring an end to our September warm spell, while simultaneously pushing Maria away from our region. The front may bring some showers with it.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Dense high overcast this morning will likely prevent any dense fog formation. Otherwise, mainly VFR next few days. VFR conditions expected Monday and Tuesday, the exception being the potential for patchy morning fog at MRB and CHO.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds will remain l0 kt or less through the weekend. Winds will likely remain sub SCA Monday under high pressure. Will need to watch Hurricane Maria, as SCA conditions may develop Tuesday if it gets close enough.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding will continue at Straits Point for the next few high tide cycles. Will likely cancel advzy for Annapolis.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...RCM/LFR MARINE...RCM/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

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