Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261433 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Shortwave-trough over the OH valley will support a lee-side trof this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon in warm moist environment. Shear is minimal and temps aloft are very warm typical of mid- summer, so no severe risk today. Activity will shift east in the early evening with storms dissipating before midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Increasing moisture trend continues Friday with dewpoints reaching 70F. Mid to upper 80s maxima will result in low 90s heat indices. Diurnal scattered thunderstorm coverage that persists through the evening expected again. Warm night with minima mid to upper 60s. Upper level ridge builds into the area from the east north of a developing low off the SC coast. Associated height rises create a subsidence inversion and greatly limit convective development. Just low chances in the Allegheny Mountains. Maxima mid 80s again with dewpoints down into the mid 60s with upper 80s heat indices.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moisture will be on the increase for the second half of the holiday weekend as a weak area of low pressure slowly tracks north over the Carolinas. Superblend continues to project highs in the mid/upper 70s while Euro/GFS forecast low 80s. There`ll be chances for showers/thunderstorms Sunday-Wednesday but severe threat looks low to non-existant. GFS shows the deepest moisture advecting over the Blue Ridge Wednesday so perhaps there could be a heavy rain threat? But that is seven days away. Looking really far out in time long range both models are projecting a cold front moving onto the east coast at the end of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Light southerly flow and VFR conditions continue into the afternoon when diurnal thunderstorms are expected to form (first storms west of DC metros in the terrain). IFR conditions expected in heaviest activity. Southerly flow continues through Saturday. Similar thunderstorms pattern Friday compared to Thursday. High pressure limits thunderstorms Saturday. Potential for showers/thunderstorms increases late Sunday evening into early next week with sub-VFR conditions in storms. Otherwise VFR conditions expected in the extended portion of the forecast. && .MARINE... Light southerly flow persists through Saturday as high pressure lingers near Bermuda. Will need to look out for southerly channeling on the main waters, but no SCA expected as of this time. Increasing chances on the waters for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...LFR/ABW MARINE...LFR/ABW

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