Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 060800 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 80S. THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S EAST. TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRW NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW LONG TERM...KRW AVIATION...BAJ/KRW MARINE...BAJ/KRW

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