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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200754
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
354 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

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Weak high pressure will build into the region today, followed
by the potential for weak disturbances Friday through Sunday. An
upper level trough of low pressure will move over the northeastern
US early in the new week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

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Heat dome centered over the south-central CONUS persists through
this weekend. Heat has already arrived over the Mid-Atlantic and
will trend upward through Friday and maintain itself through Sunday.
Light/variable flow will allow a bay breeze again today with
immediate near shore locations experiencing a boost in moisture and
therefore heat index. Max heat indices in these near shore areas
should peak around 105F this afternoon. Hence a heat advisory for
coastal zones.

The other threat from this is organized thunderstorms arcing around
this high in what is known as the ring of fire. The north side of
the high has already lit up with thunderstorm complexes from the
SD/NE border to Indiana. These are nocturnally weakening as expected.
In fact, associated clouds may filter sunshine and limit
temperatures a bit today across the central Mid-Atlantic. The threat
for organized thunderstorms begins tonight for the LWX CWA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

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Upward trend in heat should allow heat advisories across lower
elevations (especially since the advisory criteria was lowered to
100F west of the Blue Ridge this year) Friday and through the
weekend. The only limiting factor is clouds/rain/outflow from ring
of fire thunderstorm activity.

This is a multi-day heat wave with particularly warm overnights.
Repeated days with such heat and humidity takes a toll on the human
body - even if we don`t hit excessive heat warning criteria (110F
east of the Blue Ridge). Please check in on your neighbors.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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The heat stays high for Sunday, then slightly cooler
temperatures are expected next week.

Heat will continue Sunday as subtropical ridge off the coast
keeps pumping warm moist air into the Mid Atlantic.
Dewpoints still around 70. Highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
With this much energy in the atmosphere there will be the chance
for thunderstorms.

Monday a shortwave will traverse the northeastern US. This will
cause heights to lower slightly into the Mid Atlantic which will
drop temperatures a few degrees, although given the amount of
heat the surface has absorbed over the past week am still
expecting temperatures to top 90 east of the mountains, perhaps
mid 90s in the cities. Again, given amount of energy in the
atmosphere and approaching short wave have to release the
dispersion may lead to thunderstorms, possibly over NY/PA
dropping into this forecast area.

Tuesday should feel more comfortable as the trough moves
offshore. Highs in the 80s. This should continue Wednesday.

Between today and the final day of July we lose 18 minutes of
daylight.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

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VFR prevails under high pressure through the weekend. Organized
thunderstorm chances tonight through the weekend.

VFR conditions expected Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms may
occur Sunday afternoon/evening, then a better chance Monday.
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&&

.MARINE...

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Bay breezes at the shores with south flow in the middle each
afternoon through this weekend under high pressure centered over the
Mid-South States. Organized thunderstorm chances begin tonight.

Winds expected to remain below SCA Sunday with possible
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Better chance for
storms Monday.
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&&

.CLIMATE...

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Late July is climatologically the warmest time of the year,
just like six months from now is the coldest time. How has the
heat of 2017 compared with heat waves (up to now) in other
years? I chose "consecutive days that reached 90 and above" as
the criteria.

At DCA there have been two times this summer with stretches of
six consecutive days - beginning June 29 and again July 19. In
terms of ranking (going back to 1871) these are #47 and 48. #1
(18 consecutive days) occurred 145 years ago - beginning
6/27/1872!

For Baltimore there were also six consecutive days beginning
June 29, which puts it in 36th place. #1 was 13 consecutive days
beginning 7/3/1993.

The all-time record for June-Aug: for Baltimore 25 consecutive
days beginning 7/12/1995. For DC there have been two periods of
21 consecutive days - beginning 7/29/1988 and 7/25/1980.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508.
VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ052>055-057.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!