Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 011431 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1031 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY ERODED. SCT CU LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR STORM WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW CWA...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE WITH THE RIDGING AND POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BL. MORNING SOUNDING AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AOA 90F FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD TSRA DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TSRA. METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS ONLY SCHC POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS. THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL. TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD IN THE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCT DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP BY MIDDAY...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS. ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE GROWS. S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA. SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .MARINE...
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VRB FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA OR THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN. MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV. A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS

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