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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 290125
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
925 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low will settle over Kentucky Thursday into Friday
before drifting across the Great Lakes this weekend. A persistent
onshore flow and rain event will occur across the Mid-Atlantic
through Friday. The low looks to track east across the northern
Mid-Atlantic early next week with a cold front eventually crossing
the area as the low moves offshore.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
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Latest convective allowing models continue to have the south flow
bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
the area through midnight with ongoing activity overnight.
Continued local heavy rain with ongoing flash flood threats. The
activity over southern VA has been slow moving and repeating in
places. Flooding threat is greatest if this occurs over sensitive
locations like urban areas. Looks like severe thunderstorm watch
can expire on time. Will coordinate on that now.

Low level flow increases and shifts easterly Thursday with swaths
of heavy rain persisting across the forecast area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday is a day for all to be concerned about. BUFKIT soundings
are showing a strong low level easterly flow. This is a prime
heavy rain/flood producer. It is difficult to pick an exact spot
where the heaviest rain could fall but two areas of concern
appear to be 1) the area between DC and the PA border and 2) the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Flash flood watch is in effect
through Friday morning for the CWA with the exception of the
Highlands. Depending upon rainfall rates and fact that ground has
been dry this month we may see steadier rises on streams/creeks,
and over time see main stem rivers rise.

To summarize - high concern for localized flooding Thursday - widespread
rain with embedded excessive.

Despite the weak instability on Thursday a strong wind field
remains, so there could be a few stronger storms with wind/hail
threats with a Marginal risk west of the Blue Ridge.

The concern will definitely continue Thursday night as the upper
cutoff low continues to spin to our west. East/southeast flow will
keep the moisture streaming into the northern Mid Atlantic.
Flooding threat will persist.

Showers expected to continue through Friday night. Intensity looks
to decrease Friday evening, but this will need to be followed in
future forecasts. As of now the flash flood watch until 8am Friday
seems sufficient.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low will remain across the Ohio Valley this weekend. Hence, we
will need to keep a chance of showers in the forecast for at least
Saturday. However, that chance will be less than the end of the week
as the low will begin to lift toward the Great Lakes and eventually
the St. Lawrence Valley. That should permit a drying trend, making
Sunday the better of the two weekend days.

High temperatures will be near normal for the start of October.
Lows, on the other hand, will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal,
due to the humidity from the influx of moisture.

High pressure should be back for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Upper-level low will impact the area today through Friday...bringing
IFR/LIFR to all the terminals. Heaviest rain expected late
tonight into Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
overnight and Thursday afternoon. Expect low ceilings through
Friday night with persists onshore flow.

Gradual improvement through the weekend. VFR should generally
prevail by Sunday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA in effect for the lower half of the Chesapeake Bay and lower
Tidal Potomac...and for all waters through 12z Friday...as
gradient winds increase with strengthening system. Gales possible
Thursday as a southeast wind increases. Gradient should begin to
relax by later Friday...with SCA winds less likely.

Upper low will slowly lift and fill this weekend. No flags
anticipated at this time.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Persistent onshore flow with gusts 20 to 25 knots will bring a
steady increase to positive tidal departures across the waters through
Friday with at least southern areas (Annapolis and south) of the
bay and the entire tidal Potomac likely to see at least minor
coastal flooding by Thursday afternoon.

Went ahead with a coastal flood advisory for overnight at Straits
Pt in St Marys County and Thursday early afternoon which should be
more widespread. Will continue to monitor trends both up the MD
part of the Bay and Tidal Potomac.

May need to issue coastal flood watches for high tides as early as
Thursday night.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for DCZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ017.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.
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&&

$$
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