Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 262013 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 313 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... UPDATE...CANCELLED A LARGE SECTION OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY SURROUNDING THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE ON EITHER SIDE. CONTINUED TO THE ADVISORY ELSEWHERE AND THE WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT. THE MID-ATLC IS CURRENTLY IN THE RELATIVE IN-BETWEEN LULL ZONE W/ ONE SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING AND THE OTHER SIDE INTENSIFYING. STILL WATCHING FOR THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APLCNS TO SWING AROUND AND PROMOTE MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVE/TONIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALIZED ZONE OF BANDING FROM ROUGHLY KHGR TO KNHK...THAT DISPLACES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING/AMOUNTS...NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" W/ ANY DISTINCT BAND THAT SETS-UP. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE MEMBERS...LOCALIZED WRF DERIVATIVES AND THE LIKE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON A WAVY PATTERN WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPEC SOUTH AND EAST OF DC BUT ALSO INCLUDING MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS. MODIFIED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... DROPPING MOST AREAS DOWN AT LEAST AN INCH WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOWER AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SNOW SINCE EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY W/ TEMPS IN THE MID-U30S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS... COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS. TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA. LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES... SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RELATIVE LULL IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLC. EARLIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED TO LIGHT SNOW OR JUST LOW CIGS THIS AFTN. INTO THE LATE EVE HRS...ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY TO THE SRN MD SHORES...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DC/BALT AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER INTO EARLY TUE...W/ VSBYS ONLY DROPPING W/ HEAVIER SNOW ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT - FOR THOSE WHO HAVEN`T ALREADY. TUE MRNG WILL HAVE ONLY A BRIEF BOUT W/ SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY...NEAR DAWN CLOSER TO THE CHES BAY THEN LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE AFTN HRS. VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...STAYING THE COURSE INTO LATER THIS EVE. GALE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL AND LOWER BAY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE AFTN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006- 011-013-014-503>508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031- 503-504. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>054- 505-506. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ055>057. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053- 055-502-504>506. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536. && $$ PRODUCTS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS

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