Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 161744 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 144 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area today quickly departs as additional cold frontal boundaries push through the region Sunday, and again early next week. This brings cold blustery winds, along with Allegheny mountain snow showers through Tuesday. Temperatures moderate during the middle to latter portion of next week. Low pressure may impact the area by late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sunny conditions expected the rest of today, with residual stratocu in the Alleghenies dissipating through the afternoon. Highs in the 50s to mostly 60s. A weak cold front moving into the region brings scattered showers to the Alleghenies late tonight, likely after 1- 2AM. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry as cloud cover increases. Milder overnight lows in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front quickly moves across the region Sunday, pushing offshore Sunday evening. Any lingering showers in the Alleghenies dissipate as drier air surges into the area. Breezy conditions for most Sunday afternoon as temps reach the 60s and winds gust to 20- 25mph. Cooler, brisk conditions in the Alleghenies where highs only reach the 40s. Sunday night brings colder air that drops lows to the 20s to 30s for most, with lower 40s along the bay and river shores. A reinforcing cold front makes its way through the area Monday, bringing colder temperatures as highs only reach the 40s, with lower 50s east of US-15. A period of mountain snow showers is becoming more likely Monday afternoon into Monday night. Current forecast snow accumulations are from a dusting to 1", with up to 2" possible in some of the highest elevations. Conditions look to be favorable for a short time when CAPE/saturation/lift overlay into the DGZ along and west of the Allegheny Front. If these dynamics can come together for a long enough period and overcome the higher mid-March sun angle, some of those higher totals could be realized. Near to below freezing temperatures are likely across the entire area Monday night. This could be the first time in nearly three weeks that freezing temperatures are observed in most of the area. The last widespread freezing morning was March 1.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The amplified synoptic pattern over the CONUS begins to mellow out a bit by Tuesday as we shift into more of a zonal pattern, but maintains broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and a closed low over the southwest US. A modest wave may bring a burst of snow to the Alleghenies Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in from the southwest. Gusty winds continue Tuesday into Wednesday before low pressure to the northeast moves off and the pressure gradient over the area relaxes. The strongest winds during this period are expected on Tuesday, gusting 25-35 mph and up to around 40-45 mph in the higher elevations along the Allegheny Front. Winds briefly diminish overnight Tuesday night followed by another round of gustiness Wednesday afternoon, but not as gusty, up to around 20-35 mph. Below normal temperatures begin to moderate by midweek. The pattern becomes less certain towards the latter half of the week. Previous runs of guidance have developed a low over the northern Plains before taking it into the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic, but recent guidance has leaned more towards taking the low over the SW CONUS into the Southeast and offshore to develop off the coast. Regardless of solution, it seems the next shot for precipitation for the area comes Friday or into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. Southerly winds today become west to northwest Sunday into Monday as a series of reinforcing cold fronts cross the region. Winds are expected to increase and gust to 20-25kt behind these cold fronts, especially during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with any possible precipitation Tuesday limited to the Alleghenies and as such not expected to impact the terminals. The main concern will be gusty W/NW winds 25 to 30 kts on Tuesday and 20 to 25 kts on Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Favorable marine conditions through this afternoon in generally light south winds. West to northwest winds increase this evening into tonight, and again Sunday afternoon as a series of reinforcing cold fronts cross moves across the region. A period of stronger winds is most likely Monday into Tuesday, and this is when gale- force gusts are possible. Dry conditions anticipated into next week. Gusty and northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure departs to the northeast. SCA conditions are likely over all waters during the day Tuesday with gale-force gusts possible at times over the southern waters. Winds drop below SCA criteria during the night but pick back up early Wednesday morning and likely remain elevated into Thursday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal anomalies will continue to rise through tonight as southerly winds increase. Many sites are expected to reach Action Stage over the next two to three high tide cycles (this afternoon, tonight, and Sunday morning). Sensitive locations in Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC SW Waterfront could approach Minor flooding Sunday morning. Winds shift to northwest behind a cold front Sunday morning, and this should minimize the threat for coastal flooding during the subsequent high tides through Monday night.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538-539. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRR NEAR TERM...KRR SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...KRR/CAS MARINE...KRR/CAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR

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