Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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FXUS61 KLWX 161744
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
144 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area today quickly departs as additional cold
frontal boundaries push through the region Sunday, and again early
next week. This brings cold blustery winds, along with Allegheny
mountain snow showers through Tuesday. Temperatures moderate during
the middle to latter portion of next week. Low pressure may impact
the area by late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sunny conditions expected the rest of today, with residual stratocu
in the Alleghenies dissipating through the afternoon. Highs in the
50s to mostly 60s. A weak cold front moving into the region brings
scattered showers to the Alleghenies late tonight, likely after 1-
2AM. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry as cloud cover increases.
Milder overnight lows in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front quickly moves across the region Sunday, pushing
offshore Sunday evening. Any lingering showers in the Alleghenies
dissipate as drier air surges into the area. Breezy conditions for
most Sunday afternoon as temps reach the 60s and winds gust to 20-
25mph. Cooler, brisk conditions in the Alleghenies where highs only
reach the 40s. Sunday night brings colder air that drops lows to the
20s to 30s for most, with lower 40s along the bay and river shores.
A reinforcing cold front makes its way through the area Monday,
bringing colder temperatures as highs only reach the 40s, with lower
50s east of US-15. A period of mountain snow showers is becoming
more likely Monday afternoon into Monday night. Current forecast
snow accumulations are from a dusting to 1", with up to 2" possible
in some of the highest elevations. Conditions look to be favorable
for a short time when CAPE/saturation/lift overlay into the DGZ
along and west of the Allegheny Front. If these dynamics can come
together for a long enough period and overcome the higher mid-March
sun angle, some of those higher totals could be realized.
Near to below freezing temperatures are likely across the entire
area Monday night. This could be the first time in nearly three
weeks that freezing temperatures are observed in most of the area.
The last widespread freezing morning was March 1.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The amplified synoptic pattern over the CONUS begins to mellow out a
bit by Tuesday as we shift into more of a zonal pattern, but
maintains broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and a closed low
over the southwest US. A modest wave may bring a burst of snow to
the Alleghenies Tuesday night, then high pressure builds in from the
southwest.
Gusty winds continue Tuesday into Wednesday before low pressure to
the northeast moves off and the pressure gradient over the area
relaxes. The strongest winds during this period are expected on
Tuesday, gusting 25-35 mph and up to around 40-45 mph in the higher
elevations along the Allegheny Front. Winds briefly diminish
overnight Tuesday night followed by another round of gustiness
Wednesday afternoon, but not as gusty, up to around 20-35 mph.
Below normal temperatures begin to moderate by midweek. The pattern
becomes less certain towards the latter half of the week. Previous
runs of guidance have developed a low over the northern Plains
before taking it into the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic, but recent
guidance has leaned more towards taking the low over the SW CONUS
into the Southeast and offshore to develop off the coast. Regardless
of solution, it seems the next shot for precipitation for the area
comes Friday or into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. Southerly winds
today become west to northwest Sunday into Monday as a series of
reinforcing cold fronts cross the region. Winds are expected to
increase and gust to 20-25kt behind these cold fronts, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday.
VFR conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with any
possible precipitation Tuesday limited to the Alleghenies and as
such not expected to impact the terminals. The main concern will be
gusty W/NW winds 25 to 30 kts on Tuesday and 20 to 25 kts on
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
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Favorable marine conditions through this afternoon in generally
light south winds. West to northwest winds increase this evening
into tonight, and again Sunday afternoon as a series of reinforcing
cold fronts cross moves across the region. A period of stronger
winds is most likely Monday into Tuesday, and this is when gale-
force gusts are possible. Dry conditions anticipated into next
week.
Gusty and northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday
as low pressure departs to the northeast. SCA conditions are likely
over all waters during the day Tuesday with gale-force gusts
possible at times over the southern waters. Winds drop below SCA
criteria during the night but pick back up early Wednesday morning
and likely remain elevated into Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal anomalies will continue to rise through tonight as southerly
winds increase. Many sites are expected to reach Action Stage over
the next two to three high tide cycles (this afternoon, tonight, and
Sunday morning). Sensitive locations in Annapolis, Straits Point,
and DC SW Waterfront could approach Minor flooding Sunday morning.
Winds shift to northwest behind a cold front Sunday morning, and
this should minimize the threat for coastal flooding during the
subsequent high tides through Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ530>532-535-536-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...KRR/CAS
MARINE...KRR/CAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR