Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 150130 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 01Z...1024MB SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT NON DECOUPLED SITES. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT...VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND WEST. SIMILAR TEMPS TO LAST NIGHT WITH UPR 40S IN WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS LOW TO MID 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (AND UPR 30S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS). HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SLY FLOW ALLOWS HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN SUNDAY...GENERALLY MID TO UPR 70S. SHOULD CLOUDS HOLD OFF...SLY MIXING COULD ALLOW SOME 80S IN THE SRN ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AN UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BE TRACKING ACROSS MN/WI MON...REACHING NY STATE MON NGT. AN ASSOCIATED CD FNT WL BE MOVG THRU THE AREA. THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO SPAWN SOME RW...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE FNT ISN`T GREAT. WL GO W/ CHC POPS AND LOW QPF. NOT AS COOL MON NGT. ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC TUE...CREATING BRZY AND COOL CONDS. HIGHS XPCTD AGN TO BE IN THE MU70S...ABT 5 DEGS BLO NRML FOR MID SEPT. TUE NGT THE CONTINENTAL HIGH SETTLES BACK OVR THE RGN...ANOTHER NGT W/ LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S W OF I-95.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND MON. RW ARE PSBL MON NGT AS A CD FNT PUSHES INTO THE RGN. VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NO PROBS TNGT OR MON. IT IS PSBL THAT SCA CONDS WL BE SEEN TUE AFTR A CD FNT CLRS THE WATERS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN. LIGHT NORTH FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMES SLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ONSHORE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS WHERE WATER LEVELS WILL CREST AROUND 2.5 FT (2.4 FT IS THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD CRITERION) AT HIGH TIDE AROUND 11PM. NORTH WINDS EASED...ALLOWING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JACKSON PREVIOUS...WOODY!/KLW

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