-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 050126
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MIDWEEK AND TRACK UP OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BROAD AREA OF HIPRES REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVNG. VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLDS HV BEEN
SPILLING ACRS THE SKY FM THE SERN CONUS. THESE CLDS THE ONLY THING
THATS PREVENTING ANOTHER RAPID TEMP DROP...AS THE OTHER VARIABLES
/LTL WND AND A SNOWPACK/ FAVOR IT. GOING FCST HEAVILY WEIGHTED TWD
THE COLDER END OF MOS GDNC...AND CERTAINLY CONCUR. ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY AND TEMPS MINOR. MIN TEMPS NOT QUITE LOW AS LAST NGTS RECORD
COLD BUT STILL AN UNUSUAL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER HIPRES SYSTEM BUILDS EWD INTO ONTARIO-QUEBEC WED AND WED
NGT. THIS HIGH WILL RIDGE SWD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE A BIT...NELY WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT
10F BELOW NORMAL BOTH WED AND WED NGT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WHILE GRADUALLY DEEPENING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE BULK OF
THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE THURSDAY
EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SUPPORTING A TRANSITION
TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST DUE TO
THE LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT AND CONFINED TO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
REGION.

THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TREND TOWARD CLIMO AS
WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THERE IS MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GFS RESOLVING TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND ONE OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE THE EURO RESOLVES ONE LOW
APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION TAKES MOST PRECIP NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WHILE EURO SOLUTION BRINGS A CONSIDERABLE PRECIP SHIELD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE FAVORED GFS LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THRU WED NGT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIPRES. LGT AND VAR WINDS
TNGT WILL BECOME NELY AROUND 10 KT WED AFTN AND NGT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

VFR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LGT WINDS TNGT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY WED
AND WED NGT AS CANADIAN HIPRES SURGES SWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATE WED NGT...PARTICULARLY THE
MAIN STEM OF THE CHSPK BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ATTM.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/HTS
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JRK/CEB/DFH
MARINE...JRK/CEB/DFH