Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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454 FXUS61 KLWX 291842 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 242 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today before moving offshore. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns for late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered to the northeast extending back across the DELMARVA region, sandwiched between a weak frontal boundary off the Carolina coast and an approaching cold front currently just to the north. This will keep generally dry yet warm conditions in place through the afternoon hours even as the front slowly slips to the south. General agreement in the latest models showing the weakening/dissipation of the front south of the Mason-Dixon. Over the western area of the CWA, terrain with the increased instability will aid in producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow overall so not anticipating much in terms of severe, but any storm could produce brief heavy rain. Loss of heating tonight will lead to decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather the second half of the night with lows dropping into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models suggesting a weak nearly stationary boundary remains in placed over portions of the area Tuesday as near zonal flow minimizes any further southern progression of the front. Another warm day with afternoon convection possible, especially out west over the higher elevations. By Wednesday, a cold front will slowly approach from the west, eventually passing through Wednesday night. This will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms, though now possible across the entire CWA. The above normal temps will continue through this time period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front dropping south of the area by Thursday morning is expected to push Tropical Depression 8 out to sea, avoiding any significant impacts to the area. For the latest of TD 8, please see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. An unusually strong surface high will build into the region from the north behind the front and persist through the end of the week bringing slightly below normal temperatures and a much drier airmass. Tropical Depression 9 (or whatever becomes of it) is then forecast to pass well south and east of the area over the weekend, again preventing significant impacts. However, its future is much less certain given the time range. Again, for the latest forecasts on TD 9, please see products from the National Hurricane Center. A gradual warming trend is then forecast by the end of the weekend into early next week as high pressure moves offshore and establishes itself over the northwestern Atlantic. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Generally VFR conditions through the end of the week. Only restrictions would come in some patchy fog at night/early morning and any scattered showers/thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. Winds through the period 10 knots or less, && .MARINE... Winds expected to remain below SCA values today through Wednesday. Northerly channeling behind a departing cold front may result in Small Craft Advisory level winds Thursday into Thursday night, gradually subsiding into Friday as high pressure builds into the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels are slowly rising along the western shores of the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon. These elevated water levels are forecasted to remain in place through at least Tuesday night with persisting northeast to east flow. With tidal anomalies around a half to three-quarters of a foot above normal, minor coastal flooding is possible at Annapolis late tonight and then again late Tuesday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sears NEAR TERM...Sears SHORT TERM...Sears LONG TERM...DFH AVIATION...Sears/DFH MARINE...Sears/DFH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Sears is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.