Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 120117 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 917 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SET UP A RETURN FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN STATES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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OUTSIDE OF A HANDFUL OF BOUNDARY-DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN DC SUBURBS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...A QUIET EVE - THE FIRST SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. STILL WARM/HUMID OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST BUT TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 70S W OF THE PIEDMONT AND OVER THE SHEN VLY. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION AND W/ LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THIS WEEKEND...WARMING TREND WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINLY BLUE RIDGE AND WEST). OTHERWISE...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S SATURDAY...LOW 90S SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE WE WILL HAVE ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION VIA OTHER MEANS...SUCH AS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND SEA BREEZES...IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KTS SHOULD ENSURE CONVECTION REMAINS ORGANIZED AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS HAS LED SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF OUR AREA IN THE DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL AS THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL BEGIN TO USHER SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...AND RETURN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS FOR THE REGION AS EARLIER CUMULUS FIELD HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED AFT SUNSET. FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT IN PRONE AREAS...IFR POSSIBLE AT KMRB AND KCHO (PROBABLY JUST GROUND FOG AT KIAD). VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
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&& .MARINE...
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VARIABLE 5-10KT FLOW THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. 10 KT RETURN FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPR MID-ATLANTIC SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SLY FLOW CHANNELS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 KT RANGE. SCA UP FROM 4PM SATURDAY TO 6AM SUNDAY...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531-539>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-543. && $$ UPDATE...GMS PREV DISCUSSION...BAJ/CEB

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