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122
FXUS61 KLWX 090124
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
924 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A backdoor cold front will move into northern areas overnight
before stalling on Thursday. A second stronger cold front will
move across the area Thursday night. A third cold front will
move across the area early on Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Any convection managed to stay south of our CWA this afternoon
and should continue to do so through and a little past midnight
tonight. Models indicate that there could be a couple of showers
or a thunderstorm or two move into western parts of the Virginia
Piedmont and central Shenandoah Valley sometime after 3am and
linger through daybreak Thursday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Showers and perhaps thunderstorms will spread to the east
Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop later Thursday morning and during the afternoon. The
risk for severe thunderstorms still appears to be focused across
our southern zones on Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms that
could develop along the Mason-Dixon could become strong as well
as a low pressure system at the surface arrives from the west
and along the frontal boundary. More showers appear likely
Friday as upper trough crosses the area.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Longwave troughing will persist over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast states through the weekend before pushing offshore
early next week. Saturday will start out dry in the wake of a
departing shortwave trough pushing offshore. Skies should trend
mostly sunny to mostly cloudy as the day progresses with the
bulk of the cloud cover especially for the VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the weekend at all terminals. front
half of the day confined to areas along and west of the Blue
Ridge. As one shortwave trough departs, another will follow from
the Ohio River Valley late Saturday night and into the day
Sunday.

Cloud cover will increase from west to east across the forecast area
late Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. Precipitation chances will
also increase as well with large scale ascent overspreading the
region. The bulk of any shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday
will mainly be confined along and west of the Blue Ridge during the
morning and afternoon hours. This activity will spread eastward with
time late Saturday into Sunday. Coverage will remain scattered
across the area both days with more numerous to widespread activity
Saturday night into Sunday as the upper trough axis passes overhead.
With the added cloud cover and west to northwesterly flow expect
weekend high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Low
temperatures will fall back into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s.

Rain chances finally decrease Monday as upper level troughing
progresses east of the region. High pressure will briefly build over
the region from the south before shifting offshore midweek. With the
high shifting offshore Tuesday expect diurnal chances for showers
and thunderstorms to return to the region. High temperatures Monday
will reach into the low to mid 70s with mid to upper 70s expected on
both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will remain in the upper 40s and
low to mid 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR cigs expected Thursday with showers and thunderstorms. The
severe threat may be more toward the CHO terminal Thursday into
Thursday evening. A stray strong thunderstorm developing along
the Mason-Dixon could push southeastward toward the MRB and IAD
terminals Thursday afternoon. More showers Fri with low cigs
again.

Passing showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could lead to sub-
VFR reductions mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
each day as multiple shortwave troughs pivot through. West to
southwest winds are expected Saturday before switching to the
northwest Sunday. Speeds will sit between 5 to 15 kts with gusts
10 to 20 kts at times. VFR conditions continue Monday and
Tuesday as brief high pressure sits overhead.
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&&

.MARINE...
Possible SCA conditions all weekend, but winds and waves could
be higher near thunderstorms especially across southern waters.

Low end SCA level winds in west to southwest flow are expected
Saturday before turning toward the northwest Sunday. SCA level winds
will continue into Monday especially over the open waters of the bay
and tidal Potomac under southeasterly flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KLW/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST