Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 311929 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO. MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING. THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS. THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN. THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO- EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET THE EVENING ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK... STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL. SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU MON EVE. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK. && .MARINE... SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD BE LIGHTER. SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS... ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND MONITOR THE REST. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-536>542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534- 543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...HTS/BAJ MARINE...HTS/BAJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

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