Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 240228 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...RA WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL RISE (MINS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER SATURATION). WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10 PM AND 4 AM. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR SERN ZONES...ROUGHLY AROUND KCHO THIS EVENING THEN I-95 AND EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN MANY SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE BAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVS. THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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IFR CONDS IN RAIN OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE AFTR SUNRISE MON. ISOL TSRA NEAR KCHO LATE THIS EVENING THEN DC METROS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SELY WINDS INCRS TNGT WITH RAIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. SCA IN EFFECT TNGT INTO MON EVENING. SWLY FLOW MONDAY GUSTING GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT...BUT ISOLATED 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE MID-CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE STRONG TONIGHT...BUT THIS DOES NOT POSE MUCH THREAT TO THE WESTERN SHORE.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537- 539>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-538. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ536.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JACKSON PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM

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