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FXUS61 KLWX 171331
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure will remain over the eastern United States this
week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose is expected to track north off
the coast of the eastern United States during the early to mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Large scale upper-level ridge remains over the eastern United
States while a weak upper-level trough is situated over New
England into the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure remains along the
New England coast and an onshore flow continues to usher in more
moisture to our area.

Any leftover low clouds and fog should burn off by late
this morning...allowing for some sunshine. Max temps will reach
the lower to middle 80s across most locations...causing another
unseasonably warm afternoon. Limited instability will develop as
a result of the warmer and more humid conditions...but the
subsidence inversion will remain strong. Therefore...isolated to
widely scattered showers are expected this afternoon and early
evening...but will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast
due to the subsidence inversion.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Since there will be little change in air mass through Monday, with
plenty of moisture and rather low mid-level heights, the forecast
will be fairly similar through the period. The challenges will be
fog development tonight, especially late at night, followed by
diurnal development during the day.  The fog will be dictated by
where residual clouds reside; have broad-brushed the potential
pretty much areawide. As for precip, Jose will be offshore but
nearing the Mid-Atlantic by late Monday. While the system likely
won`t be affecting the area directly, onshore flow will add to the
low-level moisture profile as well as enhancing convergence.
Therefore it will be harder to pinpoint where showers may or may not
be. Have a 20-30 PoP just about anywhere during the afternoon.

Jose`s track most likely will be far enough offshore to preclude
impact as it makes its pass Monday night into Tuesday. Only minor
PoPs remain in the Bay and adjacent zones. Do have some cloud cover
though. While track errors will be less as the cyclone nears,
and model guidance is in good agreement, changes are still
possible. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for
updates on the forecast regarding Jose.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The track of Jose becomes very uncertain for the late week,
although the potential for significant impacts here is low. Also
tropical storm Maria will be the next system to watch for
potential U.S. impact next week. Those two Atlantic tropical
systems and high pressure over the eastern United States will be
the main weather features of note through this upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low clouds and fog should burn off by late this morning for most
areas. Isolated to scattered showers are expected this
afternoon. Any impact would be limited and brief. Am keeping
VFR in the forecast.

Tonight and tomorrow will be a carbon copy with respect to concerns,
ie: low clouds and fog to start the day followed by widely
scattered afternoon showers. Once again, Flight restrictions
likely in low clouds and fog, but confidence in details low.

Jose will make its nearest pass in its northbound trek Monday night
and Tuesday. Impacts should remain east of the terminals, based
on the current forecast. Past that, only aviation concern thru
Thu is the potential for patchy morning fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds light, and should remain so into Monday. The gradient
increases thereafter as Jose nears the waters. The cyclone will
remain well offshore as it heads north Monday night and Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisories does appear likely during this time. Gale not
out of the question, but its a rather low probability event at this
point. Past that, no significant marine concerns through Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels running about a half-foot above astronomical normals,
but that is sufficient to touch minor flood threshold at St George
Island. Elsewhere, caution stages have been met at many sites.

Without much flow, suspect the result will be same during the
daytime tide cycle today. Water levels will then start to inch
upward as Jose nears the mouth of the Chesapeake and forces water
into the estuary.

There is a wide range of solutions as to how extensive this rise
will be. The nighttime tide cycle is astronomically preferred.
Depending on how close the storm gets, moderate is not impossible,
but uncertainty on this is very high at the moment.

Based on confidence, have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for St
Marys County for two more cycles.  It likely will need to be
continued beyond that. No other actions have been taken at this
point, but Annapolis may be at risk for minor flooding Sunday
night/early Monday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL