Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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039 FXUS61 KLWX 281429 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1029 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Humid conditions continue today with warmer temperatures as a warm front lifts north of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front this afternoon and evening especially along and east of Interstate 81. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday as a weakening cold front drops southward into the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday and Tuesday as a stronger cold front moves into the region. Less humidity and drier conditions are expected late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Continuing to see a slow erosion of the CAD wedge this morning from northern VA north and east into central/northeast MD. Low clouds and patchy drizzle/fog continue to persists in these areas with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies south and west where the wedge has eroded. In between these aforementioned areas lies a warm frontal boundary which is currently draped from west-central PA south toward Richmond, VA. This front will continue to lift northward later this morning into midday allowing for warmer temperatures and more humidity to move back into the region. Highs today will surge back into the upper 80s and lower 90s east of the Alleghenies. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the low 80s. Heat index values will hover close to 100 degrees east of US-15 with mid 90s further west. This will put us just shy of Heat Advisory criteria with fairly moist airmass (i.e dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) and limited dry air in the mid levels mixing down. Synoptically, high pressure will continue to push further out into the Atlantic allowing the warm front to lift north and the CAD wedge to erode heading into mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough will reside in the vicinity of the I-81 corridor as 850-925mb westerly downsloping flow ensues in the lee of Appalachians/Alleghenies. This trough will become the main focal point for convection this afternoon and evening (between 19-00Z/3- 8pm). Convection appears to be loosely organized (i.e pulse or multicellular clusters) feeding off of MUCAPE values of 2500-3500 j/kg and 0-6 km shear values of less than 25 kts. 0-1 SRH values are expected to hover between 15-30 m2/s2 with DCAPE hovering between 600-900 j/kg. This should allow for some movement with the storms today although locally damaging winds and isolated instances of flash flooding appear to be the primary concerns. PWATS will continue to remain high hovering between 1.7-2.3 inches yielding efficient rain rates of 1-2"/hr. Showers and thunderstorms should initialize around I-81 between 2- 4pm before slowly drifting east toward the metros between 4-8pm tonight. An isolated shower or storm could pop further east along the river/bay breeze, but confidence in the evolution of this remains low at this time. Storms gradually diminish through the late evening hours (01-03z/9-11pm) with loss of daytime heating, with mainly dry conditions through the overnight hours. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out late tonight, especially in locations that receive thunderstorms during the daylight hours today. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to the west of the Blue Ridge, and lower to middle 70s further east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A decaying cold front will drop southward into the area during the day tomorrow. This boundary will have little impact on temperatures, as most locations should still climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. However, slightly drier air will start to filter in from the north, with precipitable water values dropping through the afternoon to the north of I-66/US-50. Further south, deeper moisture will remain in place. While an afternoon thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out anywhere, the primary focus for storms should be within the deeper moisture to the south of I-66/US-50. SPC currently has much of the forecast area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, driven by the potential for localized high winds caused by wet microbursts. We`ll remain within a hot and humid airmass on Monday, with temperatures once again climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again accompany the heat and humidity. Coverage of storms may be a bit higher compared to Sunday, especially across the northern half of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday and Tuesday should be the last few days of afternoon and evening convection as a front to the northwest on Monday moves through the region on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, will accompany the front and also develop well ahead of the front on Monday with a prefrontal trough. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. Height rises and building high pressure will result in seasonable temperatures and dry and tranquil conditions, finally, Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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IFR to LIFR conditions are ongoing at the terminals in association with low ceilings and drizzle. Rapid improvement is expected today between 15-17z/11am-1pm, with conditions likely becoming MVFR by midday, and VFR by afternoon. Thereafter, prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Temporary restrictions due to thunderstorms may be possible each afternoon and evening. Today, IAD, MRB, and CHO have the greatest chance of seeing impacts from storms, but a brief storm can`t be ruled out anywhere. Winds will be out of the south today, northwest Sunday, and then south again on Monday. VFR conditions at all terminals Monday through Tuesday night with exception to brief MVFR conditions in strong thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
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&& .MARINE... Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Monday morning. Winds will generally be southerly today, light and variable on Sunday, and southerly again on Monday. Winds may reach low-end SCA levels within southerly flow by later Monday afternoon into Monday night. SMWs as a result of thunderstorm winds may be possible each afternoon or evening through Monday. No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night with exception to any strong thunderstorms that develop near or over the waters Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...KJP/EST SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...KLW/KJP/EST MARINE...KLW/KJP