-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PROVIDING WARM TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THIS WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE QSTNRY FNT ALNG THE VA/NC BRDR HAS BEGUN TO CREEP BACK NWD AGN
AS A WMFNT...SPCLY INVOF THE DELMARVA. STILL WEDGING IN THE SHEN
VLY TO I-95. AMS N OF BNDRY STILL STBL...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LACK OF
RADR RTNS AS WELL AS THE LOW CLDS/CIGS. MEANWHILE...NMRS TSRA ACRS
NC/SRN WVA SHUD ADVECT NWD AND OVERRIDE THE STBL LLVLS. THEREFORE...
AM KEEPING LOW LKLY POPS FOR THE LT AFTN-ELY EVNG...AND SCALE BACK
FM THERE.

MDL SNDGS DEPICT A SATD LYR SFC-H9...SPCLY DURING THE OVNGT HRS.
THEREFORE THINK THAT DZFG WL ONCE AGN BE AN ISSUE TNGT. THE WMFNT
WL LKLY CONT TO INCH NWD...BUT W/ LTL WND AND NO BLYR ROOTING...
IT/LL BE HARD TO TELL.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW CLDS AND FOG WL CONT TO BE A FACTOR INTO THE MRNG HRS.
HWVR...THE MAY SUN ANGLE WL GRDLY ERODE THE SATD LYR...PERMITTING
THE FNT TO JUMP N OF AREA BY THE AFTN. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A
WARM AND A MODESTLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S EACH DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING
80F IN SOME LOCATIONS ON MON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROG A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MV THRU THE MID-
ATLC REGION ON MON. LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA.
POPS HIGHEST TOWARD CENTRAL VA/SRN MD BUT STILL IN CHANCE RANGE.

MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE AND WED AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOW
TUE AND WED DUE TO AN ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT AND A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MAV/MET DIVERGE HERE. KEPT FCST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND CHSPK BAY AS WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIMIT HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION PROPAGATES ONCE INITIATED OVER THE
MTS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS WED NGT AND THU BEFORE PASSING THRU
THE AREA ON FRI. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCORDINGLY
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE HIGHEST WITH FROPA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND MUCH COOLER IN
WAKE OF FROPA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FLGT RESTRICTIONS REMAIN...BUT IMPVMNT BGNG. IFR HANGING ON METRO
BALT AS WELL AS CHO AND MRB. CIGS AT IAD/DCA HV RISEN TO MVFR. HV
FLLWD LAMP GDNC WHICH HAS GOOD PERFORMANCE TDA. WHILE FLGT CATS
SHUD REACH MVFR ELSW TAFTN...DONT FORSEE VFR ANYWHERE. SCH SHRA
PSBL...BUT CVRG LMTD/BRIEF.

AFDK...THE TREND SHUD REVERSE...ONCE AGN PER LAMP. LLVLS SATURATE
AND WNDS LGT. AOB IFR XPCTD OVNGT.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO START THE DAY MON BEFORE MRNG STRATUS/
FOG MIX OUT FROM W TO E. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON
AFTN ALTHOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE.
DIURNAL FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT NGT AND ERY IN THE MRNG EACH
DAY IN THE MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE LOW DURING THIS
TIME.
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&&

.MARINE...
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MD BAY/TIDAL PTMC ON THE STBL SIDE OF A WMFNT ATTM. MIXING POOR
AND WNDS AOB 10 KT. HWVR THIS FNT SLOWLY WORKING NWD AGN. SCA GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR MID BAY AND LWR PTMC AT 3PM...AND FOR BAY POOLES
ISL-NBEACH AT 6PM. SUSPECT THIS IS A BIT FAST...AND DONT HV A
GOOD FEEL WHETHER SPDS WL REACH SCA CRITERIA AT ALL OR BE TRAPPED
ABV AN INVSN. WL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO FOR NOW.

LGT SLY FLOW ELY IN THE WEEK WILL STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THU...WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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DEPARTURES CONT TO DECREASE TODAY...NOW ALL LESS THAN A HALF-FOOT.
NO TIDAL FLOOD ISSUES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE /TNGT OR EVEN
TOMORROW/.

WATER LEVELS SHOULD TICK UPWARD ELY NEXT WEEK WITH SLY FLOW
PERSISTING AND A WAXING GIBBOUS MOON. THIS FAR OUT...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF POSITIVE ANOMALIES INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH MINOR
THRESHOLD.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-
     537-541-543.
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&&

$$