Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KLWX 111445 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 14Z...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WITH CLOUD STREETS OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SRN MD. TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...BAY BREEZE...AND SOLAR HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISO- SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WEAK UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TODAY. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN MOISTURE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONVECTION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY...WITH A DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS /I.E. MOISTURE/. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WOULD ALSO EXHIBIT A FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENT...THUS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES. LEE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL HELP TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND GIVEN HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION LINGERS WELL INTO THE EVENING. COLD FRONT AND STRONG VORT MAX WILL THEN LIKELY SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS FROM AN UPPER JET...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISO TSRA. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. ISO TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGELINES AND MAY IMPACT MRB-CHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT THEN WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT...SWITCHING SLY THIS EVENING. ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY AND PERHAPS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THESE COULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP/HAS NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/HAS MARINE...BAJ/BPP/HAS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.