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892
FXUS61 KLWX 280800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift northward through the area today, as an
area of low pressure tracks across southern Quebec. A weakening
cold front will drop southward into the area tomorrow. A much
stronger cold front will move through the area on Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The entire forecast area remains solidly within a CAD wedge
early this morning. Low clouds are present across the entire
area, and areas of drizzle are ongoing as well, especially to
the east of the Blue Ridge. Some remnant showers are also
ongoing across Central Virginia, but this activity is expected
to decay over the next couple hours.

High pressure off the New England coastline will retreat
eastward into the Atlantic today as a shortwave and associated
area of low pressure at the surface simultaneously move
eastward across southern Ontario/Quebec. As this occurs, winds
will turn southerly, which will allow the CAD wedge to finally
break down. Early morning low-clouds will give way to mostly
sunny skies by late morning/early afternoon, allowing
temperatures to climb into the lower 90s by mid-late afternoon.
Flow in the 850-925 hPa layer will become westerly, which will
lead to downsloping off the Appalachians and cause a surface
trough to form in the vicinity of I-81. This surface trough will
likely serve as the primary focus for initiation of
thunderstorms later this afternoon. An isolated storm or two
could also fire along bay or river breezes. While some questions
remain regarding just how high the areal coverage of storms
will be, the general progression is expected to be for storms to
form during the mid- afternoon hours along the surface trough
in the vicinity of I-81, and then slowly drift off toward the
east through the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms will
mostly likely be in the vicinity of US-15 during the late
afternoon hours, before making it closer to I-95 during the
evening.

Forecast soundings show strong instability (MLCAPE around
2000-3000 J/kg), but only modest flow through the column (around
15-20 knots in the mid-upper levels). Profiles are relatively
moist in the mid-upper levels, so DCAPE is respectable, but not
overly impressive at around 600-800 J/kg. Some storms may be
locally strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary
threat. SPC currently has most of the forecast area outlooked in
a Marginal Risk. Storms may also be capable of producing heavy
rain, but should have some forward motion to the east. While an
isolated instance or two of flash flooding can`t be ruled out,
the threat looks to be lesser compared to preceding days.

Storms should gradually wind down through the late evening hours
with loss of daytime heating, with mainly dry conditions through
the overnight hours. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out late
tonight, especially in locations that receive thunderstorms
during the daylight hours today. Overnight low temperatures will
be in the upper 60s to the west of the Blue Ridge, and lower to
middle 70s further east.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A decaying cold front will drop southward into the area during
the day tomorrow. This boundary will have little impact on
temperatures, as most locations should still climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s. However, slightly drier air will start
to filter in from the north, with precipitable water values
dropping through the afternoon to the north of I-66/US-50.
Further south, deeper moisture will remain in place. While an
afternoon thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out anywhere,
the primary focus for storms should be within the deeper
moisture to the south of I-66/US-50. SPC currently has much of
the forecast area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms, driven by the potential for localized high winds
caused by wet microbursts.

We`ll remain within a hot and humid airmass on Monday, with
temperatures once again climbing into the upper 80s and lower
90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again
accompany the heat and humidity. Coverage of storms may be
a bit higher compared to Sunday, especially across the northern
half of the forecast area.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Monday and Tuesday should be the last few days of afternoon and
evening convection as a front to the northwest on Monday moves
through the region on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms, some
strong to possibly severe, will accompany the front and also
develop well ahead of the front on Monday with a prefrontal
trough. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. Height rises
and building high pressure will result in seasonable temperatures
and dry and tranquil conditions, finally, Wednesday and
Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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IFR to LIFR conditions are ongoing at the terminals in
association with low ceilings and drizzle. Rapid improvement is
expected today after sunrise, with conditions likely becoming
MVFR by mid-morning, and VFR by afternoon. Thereafter,
prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Monday.
Temporary restrictions due to thunderstorms may be possible
each afternoon and evening. Today, MRB and CHO have the
greatest chance of seeing impacts from storms, but a brief storm
can`t be ruled out anywhere. Winds will be out of the south
today, northwest tomorrow, and then south again on Monday.

VFR conditions at all terminals Monday through Tuesday night with
exception to brief MVFR conditions in strong thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Monday
morning. Winds will generally be southerly today, light and
variable on Sunday, and southerly again on Monday. Winds may
reach low-end SCA levels within southerly flow by later Monday
afternoon into Monday night. SMWs as a result of thunderstorm
winds may be possible each afternoon or evening through Monday.

No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night with exception
to any strong thunderstorms that develop near or over the waters
Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon and
evening.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Easterly flow will become more southerly during the day today
and result in water level rises with Annapolis likely to reach
minor coastal flooding early this morning. Other sites may
reach Action stage with the upcoming tide cycle.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/KJP
MARINE...KLW/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX