-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 111445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED OVER THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY WITH CLOUD STREETS OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY AND
SRN MD.

TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...BAY BREEZE...AND SOLAR HEATING WILL LEAD TO
ISO- SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WEAK UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE SVR
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S
TODAY.

RIDGING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT
SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN MOISTURE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FCST MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY...WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY PUSH BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATERS /I.E. MOISTURE/. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WOULD ALSO EXHIBIT A FURTHER EASTWARD
EXTENT...THUS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY
NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2
INCHES.

LEE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL HELP TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND GIVEN HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION LINGERS WELL INTO THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT AND STRONG VORT MAX WILL THEN LIKELY SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS
FROM AN UPPER JET...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISO TSRA. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. ISO TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RIDGELINES AND MAY IMPACT MRB-CHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT THEN WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT...SWITCHING SLY THIS EVENING. ISO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY AND PERHAPS THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THESE COULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/HAS