Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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114 FXUS61 KLWX 250759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region into the weekend. Low pressure may affect the region late in the weekend and into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 3am...1022mb surface ridge extends from Roanoke to the north Florida Atlantic coast. Light west winds over the LWX CWA (unless decoupled) east of this ridge. Temperatures are slowly approaching the dewpoint, expect some ground fog around sunrise. The surface pressure ridge will shift east to the coast through the morning hours. The associated light west winds over the area will back sly through the afternoon. Mid-level ridge will trail the surface ridge with a firm cap in place east of the Allegheny Front. Only PoPs in near term are chances over the Alleghenies late this afternoon through tonight as activity from eastern KY drifts east. Max temps depend on mixing which will be light...but downsloping into the afternoon. Weighed MAV most in blend since it has performed well in the past two days. Expect mid to upper 80s today. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer tonight under increased moisture and mid-level clouds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure offshore Thursday will maintain light southerly flow and increasing moisture with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s. Diurnally driven thunderstorms expected first in terrain with chances near the Bay from breeze boundaries. It may take awhile for activity to develop on the Piedmont. Likely PoPs for the complex terrain with chances east given expected popup activity. The warming trend may level off Thursday with increased clouds and moisture despite the sly flow. Increasing moisture trend continues Friday with a Bermuda High. Expect 70F dewpoints and more scattered convective thunderstorms.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Summer is almost here..and it becomes more difficult to find noticeable features in the models as temperature/pressure gradients become weaker. Saturday looks warm as a sub-tropical ridge influences the Mid Atlantic: highs in the mid 80s are expected. Perhaps isolated thunderstorms could develop over the mountains in the afternoon/early evening. Upper level moisture from a developing disturbance off the SC coast could bring increased clouds into the region Sunday. Highs in the lower 80s. Again a chance of afternoon/evening showers/thuderstorms. The moisture flow is expected to continue during Memorial Day/Tuesday. Still - by no means is the holiday looking to be a washout. Scattered showers/storms will be possible with considerable cloud cover. Super Blend has high temps in the mid 70s while GFS keeps them in the low 80s. This will be somewhat dependent on cloud cover. The same is true for Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through tonight under high pressure today. Light sly flow and diurnal thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. ifr conds expected in heaviest activity. VFR conditions expected to continue Saturday. Main problem Sunday is the potential for afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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Light westerly flow becomes southerly this afternoon and persists through Friday as high pressure over the area this morning shifts east to Bermuda by Friday. No problems foreseen on the waters Saturday or Sunday.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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