Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 181852 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 252 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW IN SOME AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH AMPLE CIRRUS OVERTOP WELL TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD RISE AT LEAST INTO THE MID 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA SATURDAY. LOTS OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY/S MAXIMA...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND LIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ONLY TO HUG THE COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY IN PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SOLAR HEATING WILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT STRATOCU WITH BASES 3-4FT TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN MAINLY CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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E FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE N FOR SATURDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND HUG THE COAST...KEEPING A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN BREEZY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...BPP/CEB/KLW MARINE...BPP/CEB/KLW

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