Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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563 FXUS61 KLWX 150759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the area will weaken rapidly through today. A cold front will push into the Mid Atlantic tonight followed by a return to high pressure early in the week and hold through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...widespread low clouds with areas of fog and patchy light drizzle are present early this morning. Guidance indicate the low clouds will be very slow to lift today along the I-95 corridor. It will be much warmer today especially west of the Blue Ridge where low clouds/fog are expected to lift quicker and under SSW winds. Cdfnt will start entering the western areas late in the day with a slight chance of showers over the Potomac highlands. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cdfnt will cross the area this evening with showers likely in the west early and then spreading east overnight. Gusty NW winds will also accompany the front. Showers will linger across srn MD through late morning Mon. Then, clearing Mon afternoon with breezy NW winds with gusts up to 25 mph. Much cooler Mon and Mon night. Winds diminish Mon night under building high pressure. Areas of frost will be possible Tue morning as temperatures drop to the mid 30s under clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... There`s little change in the 00Z guidance for the extended forecast period, and thus still little in the way of weather impacts. While its center will wobble some, high pressure will remain squarely over the area through the end of the week. A weak/decaying cold front will pass through New England late in the week, which will turn winds to the north, but otherwise have little moisture or thermal contrast. Aloft, the pattern will continue to amplify into a west coast trough/east coast ridge by Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...VLIFR cigs this morning with areas of dense fog particularly at KCHO and KMRB. Cigs will be slow to lift this morning and restrictions will likely persist through midday. Cdfnt will then cross the area this evening with showers likely. Winds shift and become NW with gusts up to 25 kt Sun night and Mon. Winds begin to diminish Tue. No significant weather expected Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure. && .MARINE... SCA conditions expected later today through midday Tue. Gusts up to 30 knots expected over the lower bay Mon. Light winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure over the region. && .CLIMATE... A surge of warm air is expected Sunday ahead of the cold front. We are not currently forecasting records, but we are expecting temps to be close. Warm Temperature Records for October 15 (Sunday)... High Warm Low DCA 87 (1975) 67 (2008) BWI 86 (1989, 1975) 66 (1941) IAD 88 (1989) 64 (1985) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ535-536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/LFR MARINE...ADS/LFR CLIMATE...LWX

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