-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
560
FXUS61 KLWX 141410
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure over New England will influence the weather
through Monday. An area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southeast U.S. coast this weekend before moving
northwestward toward the coast during the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog has slowly burned off for areas along and west of the Blue
Ridge this morning. Clouds will continue to decrease throughout
the day with high pressure to the north influencing local
impacts. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for most
areas with light onshore flow. By tonight, mostly dry
conditions will continue with lows in the 50s for most areas
with low 60s possible near the waters. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower across central VA/southern MD as clouds move
more into those areas heading into Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over New England is expected to build southward
Sunday into Monday strengthening the wedge pattern bringing
drier air/lower dewpoints southward into our area. This will
result in low overcast conditions developing further south
across central and southern VA during the overnight/early
morning hours.

By Monday night, surface high pressure shifts offshore, while
at the same time, coastal low pressure begins to move inland
increasing the onshore flow bringing abundant cloud cover,
initially high level clouds, then lowering toward daybreak
Tuesday. However, any precip is likely to hold off until after
daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Uncertainty in details remains high for the extended period thanks
to a blocky upper level pattern. A closed low will meander between
the southeast and Ohio Valley before possibly being absorbed by a
trough moving southward from eastern Canada toward the end of the
week (as mid-continent ridging amplifies). While 00Z deterministic
guidance is converging on a surface low affecting the area Tuesday
and possibly Wednesday, ensemble guidance still has a wider range of
possibilities. This difference results in little to no rain up to
multi-inch totals. Even though surface features become less defined
thereafter, it is difficult to suggest any day through Friday will
be totally dry since the upper low will remain nearby. Expect more
clouds than sun through the period, with Friday having the highest
chance for partial clearing. While there is some spread in potential
temperature outcomes as well, expect the general theme to be muted
diurnal ranges with near to below normal highs and above normal
lows.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs are possible through 12Z Monday,
mainly at KCHO, elsewhere mostly VFR conditions will persist.
Strengthening onshore flow late Monday night is likely to result
in more widespread cig restrictions by 12Z Tuesday.

Sub-VFR ceilings and reduced visibility in rain are possible Tuesday
and Wednesday, although details are uncertain and dependent on the
influence of coastal low pressure.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions are possible this evening south of Drum Point.
Winds gradually strengthen Sunday into Monday with SCA
conditions becoming increasingly likely across the southern
waters, particularly Monday night into Tuesday.

Easterly winds will continue Tuesday and Wednesday with high
pressure to the north and potential low pressure drifting northward
from the Carolina coast. Small Craft Advisories are most probable
Tuesday, especially if trends with a stronger low continue. However,
advisory conditions could linger into Wednesday. There is some
potential for this low to become tropical or subtropical near the
Carolina coast...refer to National Hurricane Center products for
more details.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light, but persistent onshore flow will cause water levels to
gradually rise over the next several days. Onshore flow
strengthens further Monday night into Tuesday with minor coastal
flooding becoming increasingly likely by Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ534-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/ADM
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/ADM
MARINE...ADS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX