-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 132315
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
715 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT STALL OUT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

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OUR SPOTTER IN CHERRY GROVE WV (PENDLETON CO) IS RCVG SNSH AT 7 PM.

I`M GUESSING THE WATER IN AREA SWIMMING POOLS IS GOING TO BE
PRETTY COOL WHEN THEY OPEN IN A WEEK AND HALF... I DON`T HV POOL
TEMPS...BUT THE PTMC AT LTL FALLS IS 59 DEGS.

IN A SIDE NOTE THE RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING NGT...

DCA   41   1928
BWI   34   1996
IAD   32   1996

THE FCSTD LOWS FOR THOSE SITES TNGT - DCA 41  BWI 37  IAD 36

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVNGT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95...WILL HOLD OFF ON
A FROST ADVISORY SINCE THERE IS DOUBT THAT WINDS DECOUPLE FULLY
WITH RESIDUAL CAA W/ THE HIGH STILL BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE TUE AFTN...RESULTING IN A LGT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. WAA LATE IN THE DAY WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPS TDA THAN YDA...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF WARMING A BIT. MAX TEMPS TUE GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MODERATE INTO THE 70S AND 80S...MORE TYPICAL FOR MID MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

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HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE THE
WORKWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL HELP TOUCH OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
METRO AREAS. INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY NEXT MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TDA...TNGT AND TUE. W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET. LGT WINDS OVNGT AND TUE.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
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WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT SCA CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING.
N-NW CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY WILL KEEP WINDS HIGHER TNGT. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR THESE PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THRU ERY TUE MRNG.

SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ004-005.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     503-504.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ036>040-
     042-050-051-501-502.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...JRK/KRW