Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 300125 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 01Z...1022MB SFC HIGH IS OVER IL/MO. LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRON IS MOVING THROUGH NERN NC WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP EXTENDING BACK TO SRN MD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN THEN CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE IN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL...CANADIAN AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60F WITH A NW FLOW 10 TO 12 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60`S.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND OVERNIGHT. ANY GROUND FOG THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BREEZE. THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRES BUILD IN THROUGH THU...NWLY FLOW UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JACKSON PREVIOUS...GAINES/LN/DRAG WFO MT HOLLY

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