Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 201934 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRACKING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE LED TO TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING. A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SLOPES...CIRRUS IS ONLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STRONG 120+KT JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW INTO FRIDAY AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN THE DRY CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH AND LEAD TO NWLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE DC METRO AND PIEDMONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1ST PART OF THE XTND IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FOWARD. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FRI NGT INTO THE 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NGT FRI W/ LOWS IN THE U TEENS MUCH OF THE AREA...A10 IN THE HIGHLANDS...M20S IN THE CITIES. SAT SHOULD FEATURE LGT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U40S. NO PROBS SAT NGT EITHER. A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS A30..COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS...WARMER IN THE CITIES. THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES WL HV MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. UPR LVL SHORT WV/LOWS PRES WL BE DVLPG IN THE GULF STATES AND TRACKING NE. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS AFTR MIDDAY W/ CHCS FOR PCPN INCRSG FM S TO N AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. BEST CHC FOR RA WL BE SUN NGT. HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S...LOWS SUN NGT ONLY ABT TEN DEGS COOLER. AFTR THE WARM FNT PUSHES N MON SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY W/ HIGHS REACHING THE 60S...PSBLY L70S. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FNT WL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID ATLC MON NGT. THIS WL BE THE 1ST FCST W/ THNKSGVG MENTIONED IN IT. BIG DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECE - GFS PORTRAYS A LARGE TROF OVR THE ERN US WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ZNL FLOW W/ A DEPARTING SFC HIGH OVR THE MID ATLC. STAY TUNED.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MRB-CHO ALREADY W...DCA-IAD-BWI-MTN WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND THE PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT STAY WEST AT 5-10KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE XTND - VFR COND XPCTD FRI NGT THRU 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW PRES WL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF STATES SUN AFTN. SUB VFR CONDS ARE PSBL SUN NGT. RW PSBL MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT. GUSTY W WINDS PSBL TUE BEHIND THE FNT.
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&& .MARINE...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING HAS LED TO SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA. WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SCA ARE EXPECTED. GOOD CONDS ON THE WATERS FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LVL WINDS PSBL SUN..THEN LKLY MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT AND AFTR TEH FNT MOVES THRU MON NGT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM

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