Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241307 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 907 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS REACHING THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ADVECT WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S AND 70S IN THE MTNS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A CU FIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED. THE LOW WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT IS TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF THE MD/PA BORDER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THEREFORE WETTER ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE MD/PA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WED NIGHT AND TRACK EWD INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION THU. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLC. ATTM...MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR BRINGING MODERATE RAINS TO THE REGION. LOW PRES THEN PUSHES EAST LATE THU NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME S LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. S WINDS INCREASE TO 10- 15 KTS MONDAY. SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20KTS G 25KTS TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE BEHIND A CDFNT WITH MVFR CIGS.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME S TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON THE WATERS MONDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND THEN AGAIN FRI.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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VERY DRY TODAY WITH RH`S DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. MOISTURE RECOVERS SOMEWHAT MON BUT STILL WITH CRITICAL RH`S. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT MON. WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON TUE WITH RH`S UNLIKELY TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. SPS MAY BE NEEDED BOTH MON AND TUE.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...LFR/BJL

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