Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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466 FXUS61 KLWX 220028 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 828 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, high pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain overhead through the weekend and into next week. Hurricane Maria is expected to remain over the Atlantic and well to our southeast through at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Tropical Storm Jose remains off the coast of New England. It is expected to remain there and weaken over the next few days. High pressure ridge extends along the Appalachians with its influence over the eastern U.S. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridge at the surface will remain more or less stationary over the Appalachians through Saturday night. Aloft, ridge of high pressure centered over the Midwest will continue to extend its influence across our region, while Jose will continue to meander over the northwest Atlantic near New England. The end result will be continued warm and dry weather, with the only real weather concern being extent and coverage of patchy fog each morning. Highs will be well into the 80s Friday and Saturday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will control the weather pattern Sunday...bringing more dry and warm conditions. The remnants of Jose may push closer toward the east coast Monday and Tuesday...but latest guidance suggests that this remains far enough out to sea so that it will have little impact on our weather. The vast majority of the GEFS members keep it out to sea. Therefore...the most likely scenario is that high pressure will continue to control the weather pattern...bringing more dry conditions along with above normal temperatures. Hurricane Maria may approach the east coast of the United States during the middle portion of next week. Latest guidance suggests that there is a better chance for this system to remain offshore. Please consult the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding the forecast for Hurricane Maria.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Main concern through the next several days is patchy late night fog, mainly at MRB and CHO. Vis could drop briefly to IFR at either or both sites each of the next three mornings. An MVFR restriction is not out of the question at the other terminals (except DCA). Otherwise, VFR with light winds should prevail through Saturday night thanks to high pressure. More of the same into next week. High pressure will control the weather pattern Sunday through Tuesday. Areas of low clouds and fog are possible during the overnight and early morning hours each day.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will provide dry weather with sub-SCA winds through the weekend into early next week. Global models show winds strengthening on Tue as pressure gradient tightens as Hurricane Maria gets closer to the mid-Atlc coast middle of next week. For now, it appears small craft advisories are possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding will continue along sensitive tidal shores over the next several days. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PREVIOUS...CAS/BJL

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