000
FXUS61 KLWX 272005
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE COULD AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLC HAVE BEEN - AND WILL BE CHANGING
RAPIDLY...DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HRS AS AN AIRMASS BATTLE IS
TAKING PLACE OVER THE REGION. A CORRIDOR OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
COASTAL AIR MOVING TOWARD THE NE IS BEING MIXED INTO A MORE
AGGRESSIVE WAVE OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NW. A LESS POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY HAVE THIS WARM/MOIST CORRIDOR USHERED WELL
OFFSHORE BY NOW...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH BACK TO THE
WEST HAS CAUSED IT TO STICK AROUND. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...THE
COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE MTNS AND UPPER MIDWEST HAS BEGUN TO
MIX IN W/ THE WRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP RIDING UP THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

SCANNING THRU THE HI-RES GUIDANCE...ENSEMBLE AND RADAR TRENDS...
ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF PRECIP OVER THE SAME AREAS. ALONG AND E OF I-95
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER LIGHT PRECIP - MORE FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE
MIXED-IN FURTHER WEST. SNOW AND SLEET REPORTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRED
ACROSS THE METRO DC/BALT AND PERIPHERY AREAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HRS. BREEZY NW WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTN...W/ SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHER GUSTS OF
40-50MPH STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND APLCNS...BUT THE LOWLANDS/VLYS WILL GET STEADY 30-40MPH GUSTS
INTO THE LATE EVE. THE LEFTOVER PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WILL AMOUNT
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS/INCH OF LIQUID AND IF IT STICKS
AROUND OVER THE WRN SHORE COUNTIES OF MD-LOWER SRN MD BEFORE
SUNSET...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY MIX IN TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THESE AREAS W/ ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS AT BEST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE RE-FREEZING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. OUR HIGH TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WERE REACHED ONLY A COUPLE OF HRS AGO...THEN THE WAVE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVED AND NOW TEMPS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN TO
TOWARD THE 20S OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L-M20S ACROSS
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THU - CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK IN THE CITIES.
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS HAVE DRIED OUT THE AREA - OUTSIDE OF CURRENTLY
FALLING PRECIP - THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 THAT MAY RE-FREEZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AFTER 2-3" OF RAIN
OVER THE REGION THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...PONDING ON ROADS THAT
OCCURRED MAY BE THE ONLY PLACES THAT EXPERIENCE RE-FREEZING.

THANKSGIVING DAY...
WEATHER-WISE - A LOT QUIETER. THE COMFORT LEVEL HOWEVER WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED OFF THE HIGHER WINDS FROM A FEW RUNS
AGO TO NOW A BRISK WNW WIND DURING THE MRNG-EARLY AFTN HRS.
HOWEVER...AFTER DROPPING ALL THE WAY INTO L-M20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND A RE-INTRODUCING OF DRY AIR - THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE STUCK IN
THE TEENS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE MTNS...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN TO
HELP WARM TEMPS BACK TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER...WE`LL BE CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING AND ONLY REACH THE M30S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MINIMA IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MAXIMA WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY CLOSER TO CLIMO.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS GENERALLY KEEPS SUCH A STORM TO THE
SOUTH/OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE
COAST/UP THE COAST PROVIDING A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA.
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ROUGH MIX WINTRY PRECIP - ALBEIT LIGHT - HAS CENTERED ITSELF
DIRECTLY OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIP BATCH CONTINUES TO
WAVER BETWEEN A SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN MIX DURING THESE MIDDLE AFTN
HRS. AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HRS OF THIS AS WE`VE REACHED THE WARMEST
WE`LL GET TODAY W/ COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND MIXING W/
FALLING PRECIP. TEMPS THAT ARE STILL A FEW DEG WARMER THAN FREEZING
WILL ALLOW MOST ALL OF THE PRECIP TO MELT ON CONTACT W/ THE SFC.
WILL NEED TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU 22-23Z W/
PRECIP STILL HANGING AROUND AND MIXING W/ COLDER AIR. CLOSER TO
00Z...PRECIP SHOULD BE DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST.

GUSTY WINDS THE OTHER ISSUE...WHICH WILL LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIP ENDS. PEAK GUSTS NEAR 35KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HRS. BY THE 06-12Z TIME PERIOD...MAX GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
DROP TOWARD 20-25KT AND DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE MRNG/AFTN HRS ON
THU. SKIES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU.

VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL HANGING OVER THE
IMMEDIATE ERN SEABOARD. GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE ARRIVED OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE OHIO VLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD W/ NEAR-GALE GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EVE/LATE NIGHT HRS AS THE COLD/DRY AIR PUSHES THROUGH. ONCE THE BULK
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK TOWARD SOLID SCA GUSTS INTO THU AFTN.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ501.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-036>040-503-504.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>039-503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501>503-
     505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/GMS
MARINE...BPP/GMS