Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 141906 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 206 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across the area early Thursday. High pressure will return briefly Thursday night into Friday before a strong cold front moves through during the first half of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Low clouds have been stubborn today under sfc wedge and strong subsidence inversion. Some holes in the clouds have developed recently over northern VA, but these are likely to fill in again as more low clouds are seen moving southward from PA. Guidance indicate that clouds will finally break out sometime tonight, but my confidence level on this not particularly high given poor performance by models today handling low clouds. Assuming at least the models have the right trend on clouds decreasing tonight, expect at least some partial clearing, but some guidance indicate a marine layer advecting late tonight or around daybreak. Lows tonight in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The day should start out clear west of I-95 with a marine layer advecting inland. Dense high clouds will also spread rapidly ewd through the day with skies likely to become overcast by early afternoon. Rain showers will move in after 7PM in the highlands and push east but are likely to dry out as they reach I-95. Weak cold front will cross the area around 12Z Thu with drying conditions and breezy conditions developing. Warmer on Thu due to strong downslope flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure system will keep dry conditions on Friday into Friday night with light winds over our area. A strong low pressure system will move northeast over the Great Lakes as its associated cold front pushes east over our area sometime on Saturday. The timing of the front passage is still uncertain, but deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests showers -that could be heavy at times- are likely Saturday afternoon into the night. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front in a cold air advection regime. Some upslope snow showers are possible Saturday into Sunday. A high pressure builds behind this front Sunday into Tuesday with returning dry conditions. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ovc cigs 050 through early this evening, then clearing or partial clearing. A marine layer could affect MTN and BWI late tonight and early Thu. Sct showers expected Wed night with fropa. Gusty NW winds expected Thu behind fropa. VFR conditions expected Friday. Precipitation possible Saturday as a strong cold front moves trough our area. Dry/VFR conditions return on Sunday. && .MARINE...Winds will continue to diminish through Wed evening then strengthen late Wed night and Thu behind fropa. Solid SCA conditions expected Thu into Fri morning. Winds are expected to stay below threshold on Friday into Friday night. Winds will increase on Saturday and remain breezy into Sunday, therefore, a small craft advisory is anticipated Saturday into Sunday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/LFR MARINE...IMR/LFR

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