Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 200022 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 822 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ENERGY DRAGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. A STRONG CAP AT 800MB WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO CTP/PHI LATE TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NY ISO SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE METRO CENTERS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS TEMPS DROP TONIGHT AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY FORM DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND PERSISTS...THUS EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...THEN WILL SPREAD POPS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ALSO THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL STORMS EITHER...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY TO ALLOW FOR DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT CAUSING /IFR/MVFR/ CONDITIONS AT THE HUBS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW BUT MENTIONED IT AS A SCT010 DECK. THIS DECK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT CHO/MRB THROUGH THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND. ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO ANY OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WEAK GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SPEEDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/KLW NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KLW MARINE...BPP/KLW

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