Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 190859 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 359 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATER TODAY AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS A RESULT...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH MOST AREAS DIPPING INTO THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW CLIMO. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY AND A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...MAX TEMPS WERE TWEAKED DOWN CLOSER TO THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO FIT GIVEN THE TEMPS ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. LEANED COLDER WITH THE FORECAST SINCE THERE WILL BE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO CANADA MONDAY. WITH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...THE WARM FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE DEEP OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW AREAS MAY EVEN APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A RETURN OF DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THURSDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. && .CLIMATE... BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD LOW FOR DULLES TODAY HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AND THE RECORD LOW FOR BWI WILL BE CHALLANGED AS WELL. ALSO...THE RECORD LOW FOR TUESDAY...NOVEMBER 18TH WAS BROKEN AT WASHINGTON DULLES. THE LOW WAS 18 DEGREES BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 20 SET IN 1991. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...NOVEMBER 19TH. SITE 11/19 RECORD LOW 11/19 LOW MAX DCA 18 (1891) 33 (1880) BWI 20 (1936) 35 (1880) IAD 20 (1990) 38 (2008) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505- 506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ536-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...KRW SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/KRW MARINE...BJL/KRW CLIMATE...BJL

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