Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 100728
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND A RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN THE WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A BAY BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE...WITH MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWEST 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT LOSES MOMENTUM AND STALLS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT BOTH NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS E WV/NORTHERN MD AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT WHERE MLCAPES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ARE PRESENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED A SCHC OF THUNDER ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY EVENING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE JET STREAK AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND SRN
MD WHICH ARE ON THE SOUTH MORE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE LOW. FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
NO SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE HIGH IN THE
ATLANTIC AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE TO 70 SAT AND APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S SUN. A
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY BE PRESENT
FRIDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY AND A RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH WILL DEVELOP. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. FARTHER SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AND THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS MAY PREVENT THE DEEP MIXING
LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE...WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15
KNOTS FOR NOW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
MET AGAIN AS WINDS INCREASE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SDG
NEAR TERM...SDG
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...SDG/HAS
MARINE...SDG/HAS







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