Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 291517 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1017 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the area today. An area of low
pressure will move across the area Wednesday with a cold frontal
passage Wednesday night. High pressure will return to the region
Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will approach the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Showers will continue to affect the area through mid afternoon in
area of strong warm air advection. Winds will strengthen somewhat
early this afternoon as warm front lifts through and mixing
increases. Generally a quarter to half inch of rain expected
through this afternoon.

Fog is expected to develop tonight especially east of the Blue Ridge
where rain clears near or after sunset. Minima generally less than
10 degrees below the maxima with continued south winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A digging long wave trough/jet stream over the intermountain west
will keep the low centered over MN through tonight and keep the SErn
CONUS cold front essentially in place. It will take until Wednesday
night for the longwave trough axis to move across the OH valley for
the cold front to push through the Mid-Atlantic.

Rain associated with the second round/long wave trough breaks out
late tonight as convergence spreads in from the OH valley. Weak
instability may allow isolated thunderstorms east of I-95 Wednesday
afternoon.

Gusty west wind up to 30 mph Thursday behind the cold front with
little upslope snow. Maxima mid to upper 50s in dry air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the area Friday and Saturday. Highs both days
in the lower 50s east of the mountains...mid to upper 40s west
except colder in the Highlands. Lows both night close to freezing.

Sunday...models are diverging on the timing of the short wave
that could bring the region some more rain. Euro is the faster of
the two..bringing extensive moisture into the Mid Atlantic Sunday
afternoon ahead of a warm front draped over the Gulf states. Rain
showers would be the predominant p-type...although this could mix
with snow at elevation above 2000 feet.

Short wave to approach and move through the region Monday. It is
again possible that rain could mix with snow Sunday night as
temperatures drop close to freezing. This would revert to all rain
Monday..with precipitation chances likely ending by the end of the
day as the trough moves offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR conds generally today as rain overspreads the DC metros with
increasing south winds. IFR cigs possible by this evening. Fog
likely overnight between two rain events, the second beginning late
tonight. Showers with isolated thunder east of I-95 Wednesday. Cold
front crosses Wednesday night with 25 kt peak west gusts Thursday.

VFR conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds increase today as rain overspreads the area. Gusty
showers and strong winds mainly this afternoon warrant gale warning
for central and southern MD waters today. SCA conditions at least
through Thursday with a cold front crossing Wednesday night. Strong
south winds ahead may mix down Wednesday and warrant another Gale.

SCA may be needed for portions of the waters Friday as high
pressure builds into the waters. No problems expected Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will continue to rise on southerly flow. Minor
coastal flooding will be possible at Annapolis at times of high
tide (5:28 pm) and at Havre de Grace.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ531-536-
     539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ530-535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
Update...LFR
Products...BAJ/WOODY!



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