Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 190755 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 355 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...REMAINING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...AN UPR TROUGH IS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH THE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND A RICH GULF MOISTURE PLUME UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS RIDING OVER 1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERLIN, NH. WIDESPREAD ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED STRATIFORM RAIN (CERTAINLY A RARITY FOR MID-JULY AROUND HERE!) IS LIFTING NORTH INTO PA. JUST SPRINKLES EAST OF THE OFFICE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RAIN BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR NORTH...CONTINUING AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN EDGE OF PRECIP RETRACTS WEST TO THE ALLEGHENIES...THOUGH THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG BLUE RIDGE AND ITS FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS...SO WENT LOW 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPR 70S WEST. QPF ONLY A TENTH INCH OR SO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TONIGHT...WEDGE/ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA...PROBABLY REINFORCED BY THE RAIN. CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH ANY RAIN LIGHT. MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER COUNTERACTING. SUNDAY...GLOOMY WEDGE DAY...BUT AT LEAST CLOUD CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN 5KFT OR SO. UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WEST SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDER. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WARM BIAS...SO WENT FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE XTND LOOKS TO BE A TALE OF A SLOW WARM UP FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS TO END THE WK. WK TROFFING SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT DURG MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BY WHAT MIGHT BE REFERRED TO AS A HIGH ZNL UPR LVL PATTERN DURG MIDWK. THE SWRN U.S. WL SCORCH AS A RDG WHICH MAY REACH 600 DM (!) FORMS OVR THE 4 CORNERS AREA WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID ATLC WL SEE TEMPS RISE SLOWLY INTO THE LM90S BY WED. LOWS WL CREEP UP INTO THE M60S BY MIDWEEK...WHICH IS THE CLIMO NORM FOR THIS TIME IN JUL. THE BETTER TSTM CHCS LOOK TO BE ON THU AS ANOTHER (A SOMEWHAT RARE TERM AT THIS TIME OF YR) CD FNT/UPR TROF SLIDES OVR THE TOP OF THE SWRN RIDGE ONTO THE E CST. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI...BRINGING CLRG SKIES W/ HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE M80S.
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&& .AVIATION /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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STABLE ONSHORE FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD MAJORITY OF THE TIME SUN NGT-WED. BEST CHC OF TSTMS WOULD BE WED..BUT MOST LKLY A BETTER CHC ON THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOW GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN NGT-WED. CHC OF TSTMS WED...BUT MOST LKLY A BETTER CHC ON THU.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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