Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 151357 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 957 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. NW WINDS AROUND THE NE QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL BECOME W-SW TODAY AS THE HIGH NEARS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING IN THE 60S TODAY AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TODAY...5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL TODAY FOR MID AUGUST. DEWPOINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY WILL ALLOW OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP DOWN TO SOME OF THEIR LOWEST OF THE SUMMER MONTHS. EXPECTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/APLCNS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY WILL LOOK/FEEL MORE LIKE THURSDAY THAN TODAY...W/ TEMPS AGAIN CLIMBING BACK INTO THE L-M80S BY MID AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR SWLY WINDS TO PICK UP AND START INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET TRANSITIONAL DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY...SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT. DURING THIS TIME...ONLY A FEW PASSING UPPER CLOUD DECKS AND WEAK WLY SFC WINDS THIS AFTN. THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL SWITCH SFC WINDS BACK TO SWLY AND THEN SLY INTO LATE SAT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .MARINE... WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW A HALF FOOT ACROSS THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WILL BE BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ANOMALIES AVERAGE A HALF FOOT IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW MINRO FLOOD BUT AT OR NEAR ACTION STAGE AT THE DC/WATERFRONT FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/GMS MARINE...BJL/GMS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS

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