Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 191907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
307 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

High pressure will build over the area through Friday morning.
Low pressure will track east across north carolina friday night
before turning up the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. upper level low
pressure will persist along the mid-atlantic coast saturday night
through monday night. High pressure then builds overhead through
tuesday night before shifting offshore.


As of 2pm...1021mb MSLP is spread across the southern Mid-
Atlantic. Upper level low pressure is over nrn new england per
water vapor imagery. A 1024mb surface high will build southeast
over the area through Friday morning. Stratus clouds have slowly
transition to fair cu over the past several hours.

Subsidence will clear skies out with sunset. Near calm, clear
skies, and residual surface moisture will result in at least
valley fog after midnight tonight. Minima tonight mid to upper 40s
inland tonight, low to mid 50s near shore.


Upper level trough tracks east across the Midwest states Friday
into Friday night. Surface low pressure develops over NC Friday
night reaching the northern outer banks during Saturday morning.
An east wind will develop across the CWA Friday night with
subtropical moisture converging ahead of the upper low. 100 POPs
spread east across the CWA through the night.

Bulk of rain from this event falls Friday night with widespread
moderate rain over the southern 2/3 of the CWA. Moderate rain
continues east of Interstate 95 Saturday morning. Wrap around NEly
flow keeps clouds and light rain across the area into Saturday
evening. Total QPF 0.5 inch along mason- dixon line to 1.5-2
inches over central VA with 0.75 to 1.25 inches between. Will
need to monitor eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, but
this should be just a soaking rain with no flood hazards. The low
clouds keep maxima low, around 60 degrees.

North wind and clouds as upper trough enters the area Saturday
night. Rain should generally taper off through the night. Minima
upper 40s inland to low 50s near shore.


A slow moving upper-level low will spiral about just offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic through the first half of next week while slowly
weakening. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon and again
Monday afternoon during daytime heating and aided instability from
the nearby upper low. But as the low weakens and pulls east Tuesday
into Wednesday, gradual height rises should squash any showers
leading to a drying and warming trend.

Upper-level ridging will build in the wake of the departing upper
low with a surface high establishing itself off the southeast coast
for the second part of next week. This should lend to a more summer
like pattern with warmer and more humid air and pop up showers or
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.


VFR conditions continue through this evening as high pressure
builds over the area with light and variable flow. Clear and
nearly calm conditions will result in at least valley fog late
tonight through sunrise Friday. VFR then rest of Friday with light
SEly flow developing.

Widespread rain spreads east Friday night with moderate rain and
IFR conds expected for KCHO and into DC Metros early Saturday
morning. NEly flow and light rain then lingers across the area
into Saturday evening as low pressure moves up the Mid-Atlantic

Sub-VFR possible in lingering showers under upper level low
pressure Saturday night into Sunday night. Winds will be
northerly around 10 knots Sunday into Monday.


Light north winds through the evening as high pressure builds from
the northwest. SEly flow develops Friday behind the high. Low
pressure passes south Friday night, turning up the Mid-Atlantic
coast Saturday. NEly flow increases to SCA range late Friday
night, lingering into Saturday night.

Northerly channeling behind departing low pressure to the
east and approaching high pressure from the west could result in
Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts lingering over at least
portions of the waters through Sunday.




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