Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

000
FXUS61 KLWX 120134
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
834 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the region`s weather
through Sunday. Low pressure will then affect the region Sunday
night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday.
Another front may impact the region midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will remain over the region tonight and it
will remain dry and cold. Light winds and dry air will provide a
setup for radiational cooling...but that will likely be hindered
a bit due to a bkn/ovc deck of high clouds in the zonal flow
aloft. Min temps will most likely be in the lower to middle 20s
across most locations...but lower to middle 30s in the urban
centers and along the immediate shorelines of the Chesapeake
and Tidal Potomac.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Area of low pressure will be moving from the Plains into the
Ohio Valley during the day Sunday as high pressure moves
off into the Atlantic. Clouds will gradually lower and thicken
during the day Sunday, and while milder than today, the day should
remain below normal, with highs from the upper 40s to low 50s.

The weak area of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley
towards the Appalachian Mountains, opening up and forming a
secondary wave of low pressure towards southeast VA/NC. This
will spread light precipitation across the region Sunday night
into Monday morning. With the increasing and thickening clouds,
temperatures will be milder than previous nights, however, the
low levels may remain just cold enough to get a period of light
mixed precipitation across portions of northern/western MD,
eastern WV, and northwestern VA. Will maintain mention in the
HWO for this possibility. Lows will range in the 30s to near
40F.

The system will push eastward later Monday and Monday night as
surface high pressure moves back in. Monday likely remains on
the cool side with low level northerly flow and cloud cover
behind the departing system, so have kept highs in the 40s to
low 50s. Lows Monday night in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will dominate our area`s weather Tuesday into
Wednesday keeping dry conditions. A weakening front approaches
from the west Wednesday night increasing PoPs over our region.
Guidance suggests that higher amounts of precipitation could be
west of the Blue Ridge, but not expecting much from this system.

High pressure returns on Thursday into Friday night before a
stronger cold front/upper trough moves across on Saturday.
Precipitations should be more widespread with this front.

High temperatures during this period will be in the 40s and 50s,
potentially some 60s in our southern counties. Low temperatures
will be mainly in the 30s and 40s. Higher elevations could see
some 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through Sunday with increasing and thickening high/mid
clouds. Winds will remain below 10 knots.

Sub-VFR becomes possible Sunday night into Monday as a low
pressure system brings a period of light rain, which could
possibly be mixed with ice or snow at MRB. Conditions will
return to VFR by Monday afternoon and Monday night.

VFR conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Some
precipitation possible Wednesday night as weak cold front moves
trough. Dry/VFR conditions return on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds expected through Sunday night. SCA then becomes
possible Monday afternoon into Monday night behind a departing
frontal system.

Winds are expected to stay below threshold on Tuesday but the
day will start breezy. Winds will diminish through the day and
into Friday, therefore, not anticipating small craft advisory
during this period.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...BJL/MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/MM/IMR
MARINE...BJL/MM/IMR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.