Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 220718
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURANCE WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. SW FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER 10 DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP THE
REGION MOSTLY CLOUDY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. THE FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STRONG AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...WEAK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ISOLATED TODAY. SIM REFLECTIVITY FROM HI RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WANE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FALLING
HEIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMTS OF LESS THAN A HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO EXIT AND CLEARING TO OCCUR. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL...U60S/L70S SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE SUN EVENING WITH WARM WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MON WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 80S. A WEAK CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUE BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR
MID WEEK WITH TEMPS COOLING DOWN TO NEAR 70F. LOW PRES PASSES TO
THE NORTH AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
-SHRA MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS TODAY. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. VCTS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. S WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY. WINDS VEER TO THE N BY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. A FEW SHOWERS TUE
WITH A CDFNT BUT DON`T APPEAR TO PUT ANY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE... SRLY CHANNELING ON THE WATERS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THE
REST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND SCA WAS EXTENDED FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY.

N WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SCA GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED SAT NIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE IN STRONG WSW FLOW AND
BEHIND A CDFNT TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



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