Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 191410 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016
A weak front along the Appalachians will linger over the area into
Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region for mid to late
week. A cold front is expected to drop into the Mid Altantic this
weekend bringing cooler temperatures by Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers, some moderate to heavy, will continue to lift northeast
through the area on SSW steering flow. Rainfall totals as high as
2.2 inches have been observed over the last 12 hrs in Rappahannock
county. Another 1 to 2 inches could fall in the next svrl hours
over the Fredericksburg area and southern MD. Showers expected to
start pushing south and east of the area by 21Z. Due to very dry
antecedent conditions, flash flooding is not expected.
Temperatures suppressed today under clouds and rain. Maxima mid to
upper 70s (not much higher than the dewpoint).
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds over Wrn PA tonight with areas west of the Blue
Ridge with valley fog developing in any clearing. North winds lower
dewpoints into the 60s which the temperatures will follow, minima
mid to upper 60s inland.
Low pressure persists along the Carolina coast into Thursday.
However, surface high pressure will shift south into the area with a
return to dry conditions by Wednesday with a north wind.
Dry and sunny conditions Wednesday through Friday would allow for
above normal temperatures, generally mid 80s maxima.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the latter
part of the week with low precipitation chances as high pressure
remains off the coast. A cold front is expected to sag into the
Mid Atlantic during the weekend.
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR conds develop through the mid morning as increasing moisture
lowers CIGs and intense rain has IFR vsbys. Rain generally shifts
east of the DC metros by late afternoon. High pressure spreads in
from the north Tuesday with VFR prevailing outside of morning fog.
VFR conds prevail Wednesday high pressure builds into the area.
VFR conditions expected Thursday and Friday.
SCA continues until 6am for southerly channeling, expected to
expire. NEly flow then through Tuesday generally 10 kt.
High pressure builds in from eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and
Wednesday with north winds.
Winds expected to remain below SCA values Thursday and Friday.
Elevated water levels will persist through tonight. Minor coastal
flooding is possible at sensitive sites for the morning high tide
and more likely for this evening. Coastal flood headlines extended
through the evening high tide. The northeast wind that develops
today should bring down water levels enough into Tuesday to
warrant an end to the headlines.
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ054.