Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 161859
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
259 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the area Monday morning.
High pressure builds over the area Monday night through early
Wednesday. The next cold front will cross the area Thursday
night. High pressure builds over the area for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Sct showers expected rest of this
afternoon and this evening before activity begins to weaken or
dissipate with loss of heating. A few showers will remain
possible along the Allegheny front overnight. Otherwise, very
mild tonight with plenty of cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Cdfnt will cross the area during the morning showers with risk
of showers and perhaps a few t-storms persisting across the
cntrl Shenandoah valley and the Charlottesville area through the
day. Dry air pushes south Mon night with precip chances ending.

Nice Tue under high pressure. High moves east with waa regime
developing leading to increased precip chances. GFS and ECMWF
differ on this, but have followed the more reliable Euro and
increased PoPs for Wed. Could be a lull in precip Wed night, but
details remain uncertain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Low pressure moves from
the Great Plains into the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday,
as high pressure centered over eastern Canada moves NE...
easterly flow over our region. The low pressure continues to
move east Thursday into Friday pushing a boundary over or
stalling it near our region, bringing southerly flow, but timing
and position of this is still uncertain. This will allow for an
increase in PoPs these days. Drier conditions build on Saturday
with a low pressure approaching from the SW on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A shower or t-storm
possible at KMRB early this evening, otherwise VFR conditions.
Cdfnt crosses the area overnight with showers possible mainly
KCHO and vicinity. Dry wx expected Mon night through Tue night.

Showers possible Wed through Fri in waa regime.

&&

.MARINE...Gusty SW winds through tonight. Winds diminish Mon and
strengthen again Tue with SCA possible. SCA possible again Thu
through Sat.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR



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