Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 161859 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 259 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... TROF AXIS PIVOTING THRU CWFA TAFTN. ANY ASSOCD PVA SHUD PASS THRU AREA BY LT TAFTN. NVA AND LOSS OF INSOLATION SHUD LEAD TO A RAPID DSPTN OF SHRA DURING THE ELY EVE. DRIER AIR ADVCTS EWD OVNGT...THUS DONT THINK ITLL BE A BIG FOG NGT. SKIES WL BE CLRG AND WLY WNDS WL CONT THRU THE NGT AS WELL. H5 LOW ACRS ONT/QUE FRI. CWFA WL BE IN WLY FLOW BTWN VORT LOBES DURING THIS PD. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL LEAD TO MOSUN SKIES DURING THE DAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MIN-T. FOR MAXT...MOS MEAN A BIT HIER THAN FCST...AND DO THINK THAT SOME HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE IN THIS SETUP. TRENDED FCST UPWD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD SOME LIFT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...SO MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS WITH IT. A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ECMWF 500MB SHORTWAVE ENTERING GREAT LAKES AREA LATE SUNDAY. CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW WILL CROSS CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ENTER CWA MONDAY. FRONT WILL CROSS CWA TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SHIRT CWA TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CROSS CWA THURSDAY. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TUESDAY...AND A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL TRYING TO BURN OFF LLVL MSTR. DO BELIEVE THAT RESTRICTIONS WL CEASE...BUT ITS BEE DELAYED. CURRENTLY SHOOTING FOR LT DAY...DURING THE PUSH. VFR SHUD PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PD IN WLY FLOW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE.. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...BJL LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BJL/HTS MARINE...BJL/HTS

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