Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281751 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 151 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ANCHORING OFF THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 17Z...WEAK ANA-COLD FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM CNTRL VA TO NC AND IS DRIFTING SOUTH. AN ASSOCIATED CU FIELD IS ACROSS CHARLOTTESVILLE AND SOUTH. EXPECT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 18 MPH REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO BERMUDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NLY FLOW WILL BECOME NELY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED AS DRY AIR SETTLES IN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AIDED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-95. PVA AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH BRINGS LIKELY POPS PIEDMONT AND WEST (HIGH CHANCES EAST) FOR SUNDAY. GULF MOISTURE PLUME OF 2 INCH PWATS AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES OR TRAINING STORMS WOULD CAUSE FLOOD CONCERNS. INCREASED QPF FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WORDING IN THE HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED TO THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SET UP AS WELL LEADING TO A MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NWLY/NLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUNDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE HOT/HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES.
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&& .MARINE...
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GUSTY NWLY/NLY FLOW REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAINLY 15-17KT WITH SOME STRAY 18-19KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLACKING...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS TIME. NLY FLOW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC...THEN ONSHORE TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. SLY RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THE HOT/HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BAJ MARINE...BAJ

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