Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 190124 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
924 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly pass through the area Tuesday through
Tuesday night. High pressure will build overhead for Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure over the Atlantic will control the weather
pattern for late in the week before a cold front approaches the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Some instability still left in the area for showers and t-storms
to continue for the next few hours. A cdfnt is located south of
the Great Lks and will cross the area overnight into early Tue.
We`ll keep showers in the fcst for the upslope areas and along the
Chesapeake Bay for the overnight and have PoPs for the current
activity over the Piedmont. Skies will likely clear in some areas
overnight with patchy fog formation possible especially in areas
that had some rain today. Cdfnt crosses the area early on Tue. A
few showers or t-storms appear still possible mainly over southern
areas. No severe wx is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front should be located across Central Virginia Tuesday
morning and is expected to stay nearly stationary through
Tuesday which will result in dewpts elevated especially across
the southern half of the outlook area and isolated showers and
thunderstorms may initiate into the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to stay sub-severe at this time. Northerly winds should
finally elevate humidity Tuesday night with dewpts dropping into
the 50s from NW to SE.

High pressure will build into the region Wednesday and dry
conditions are expected. Temps will climb into the mid 80s by the
afternoon with low dewpts giving a quick break from the heat and
humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While it remains dry, heat returns Thursday and Friday on
south/southwesterly flow. Humidity still relatively mild
Thursday (L60s)...but dewpoints return into the M/U60s by Friday.

Hot and humid this weekend...with heat indices AOA 100F Saturday and
near 100F Sunday. Diurnal shower and storm chances return with the
increasing heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have ended at all airports. MVFR Vis possible at all
airports overnight.

VFR conditions expected Tuesday and into Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the region. A cold front may push back into
the region Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms are
possible mainly across CHO.

VFR expected Thursday through the weekend. Though, a few
showers/storms possible Saturday and Sunday in the hot and humid
airmass.

&&

.MARINE...A cold front will pass through the waters Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead
of the boundary...especially across the middle portion of the Bay
into the Potomac River. Locally gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that do develop. High pressure will build overhead
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Mostly sub-SCA conditions expected for the end of the week and
weekend, however brief intervals of gusts up to around 20 knots
possible each night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BJL/HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/LFR
MARINE...MSE/LFR


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