Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 251811 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 211 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN THEN DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT OR MON. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN TUE AND WED. A CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...QUIET TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT OVR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. LEE-SIDE TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT T-STORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY IN PLACE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FROM SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BUT WITH ONLY MODEST SHEAR. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE RISK WOULD BE MINIMAL. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR HIGH TEMPS SO PRETTY MUCH JUST STUCK WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND...BUT CLOUDS COULD KEEP THINGS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DISSIPATES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER OR DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY NIGHT...MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRES OVER OUR REGION DOMINATES CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED... THEN IT MOVES OFF THE COAST THU... BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE ON THU AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH FRI. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PSBL BOTH THU AND FRI. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... SO KEPT A CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WED AND THU... AND IN THE UPR 80S FRI AND SAT. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR AT MOST AIRPORTS TONIGHT XCPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMRB. RISK OF T-STORMS SUN AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN SCT AT BEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BY 02Z MON. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE MON AFT IN SHWRS/SCTD TSTMS. SLY FLOW 10 KT MON BECOMING NLY TUE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED. && .MARINE...SRLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15G20KT SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE MON AFT DEPENDING ON GRADIENT/POSITION OF WEAK FRONT NEAR THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...DFH LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/LFR/DFH MARINE...IMR/LFR/DFH

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