Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 221531 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1031 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT AS PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF AND THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS GONE. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED SOME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT/S STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH 11 AM AND FEEL THAT EXPIRATION AT 11 AM WILL BE FINE. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MORNING. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS AND LOW 30S OVER DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAST FLOW RMNS THE TERM BEST DESCRIBING THE WX PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF JAN. HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN ERLY FRI WL BE MOVG OFF THE CST...AND XPCT TO SEE HIGH CLDS ON THE INCRS FRI AFTN AHD OF LOW PRES DVLPG IN THE NRN GULFMEX. HIGHS FRI IN THE U30S/L40S. FRI NGT/SAT MID ALTC WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW AS IT TRANSFERS ENERGY FM THE GULF STATES TO NEAR ORF SAT MRNG. TEMPS FRI NGT XPCTD TO BE A FEW DEGS BLO FRZG. THE 850-1000 TCKNS ARE RIGHT ARND 1300 DM. ONE THING THAT LEADS ME TO THINK P-TYPE LEANS TOWARDS SN IS THAT THE PCPN WL BEGIN OVRNGT. IT IS PSBL THAT THIS WL CHG TO RA ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY TO THIS EVENT. DURG DAY SAT THE LOW IS XPCTD TRACK E OF THE DELMARVA. HIGHEST POPS WL BE IN THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA - ALONG THE BAY PCPN SHOULD CHG TO RA...W OF I-95 A RASN MIX...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FURTHER W...ALTHO W OF THE BLU RDG POPS WL BE LOWER. PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FM SW TO NE DURG THE AFTN. HIGHS GNRLY 35-40. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RETURNS SAT NGT/SUN...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS RAPIDLY INTO THE MID ATLC COURTESY OF A 140 KT JET AND THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF UPR LVL PATN. ATTM THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTM - IT WL NOT BE DIVING INTO THE GULF LK THE SAT STORM. FOR NOW WL KEEP THE CHC OF SN ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S TOO ERLY TO TRY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VIS/CIG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 16Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI...W/ INCRSG CLDS FRI NGT EVENTUALLY BCMG SUB- VFR. INCREASING CHC OF IFR OR LOWER LATE FRI NGT/SAT WITH PCPN. CONDS IMPRVG LATE SAT AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUN NGT/MON MRNG. MIDDLE OF NEXT WK - CHILLY TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE RGN.
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&& .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS LIKELY. WE MAY SEE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO RAISE A SCA...AND IT MAY BE APPROPRIATELY HANDLED WITH A MWS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY. SCA LVL WINDS LOOK LKLY SAT AFTN/EVE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ038>040- 050>052-055-056-501-502. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ BPP/KCS/WOODY!

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