Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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094 FXUS61 KLWX 260801 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MI AND OH WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY NSSL WRF-ARW. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPS TODAY. USING A 24-HR CHANGE FROM ALL GUIDANCE AND APPLYING IT TO YESTERDAY HIGHS GIVES TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90F OR LOW 90S OVER FREDERICKSBURG BUT CAPPED MAXT AT 89F. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED MID AFTERNOON ON ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MD AND WRN VA WHERE NSSL WRF-ARW AND THE NCAR WRF-ARW ENSEMBLE ARE MORE BULLISH WITH CONVECTION TODAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FAST STORM MOTION OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR T-STORMS IS FCST BY SPC DAY 1 OTKL OVER NE MD. T-STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTESVILLE THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. A STRATUS LAYER FCST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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MUCH COOLER WED AS COOL WEDGE ESTABLISHES. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS WARM AIR OVERRUNS SFC FRONT ACROSS VA. BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED OF GENERALLY HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH EARLY FRI. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THU AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALG STALLED OUT FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SLOWLY MOVING/STALLED FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. A COUPLE WEAK SFC WAVES WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A 500 MB VORT MAX WILL SWING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE WILL MAINTAIN LLVL EASTERLY FLOW...ESSENTIALLY A CAD WEDGE. THEREFORE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO PERSIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DRIZZLE. DESPITE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...00Z GFS DIVERGES A BIT ON WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. ECMWF...GEM...AND SOME GEFS MEMBERS KEEP PRECIP TO A MIN...BUT WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY CLOUDY DAY REGARDLESS. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON LOW TRACK/WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCT GUSTY T-STORMS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT KBWI AND KMTN BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. STRATUS DECK FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRI ALONG WITH RAIN UNDER COOL SFC WEDGE. MVFR (PERHAPS LOCALLY IFR) CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. CIGS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT LIKELY WON/T SCATTER OUT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. T-STORMS MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF SMW`S ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER BAY. NE FLOW MAY ENHANCE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR NOW. LIGHT NE/E FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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GUSTY WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY. MUCH COOLER WED AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/LFR MARINE...ADS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...LFR

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