Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

000
FXUS61 KLWX 231817
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
217 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT NEARBY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER
IN DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
VIRGINIA. DO FEEL THAT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
FROM DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
MARYLAND...AND PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS MAY
CAUSE MORE FROST ACROSS THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT FOR A FROST ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BRINGING SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...SO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
CHILLY...RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MONDAY AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH SOME SUNSHINE. A POPUP SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NEW YORK INTO
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE
MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. A
RETURN FLOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WARMTH AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.

A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY LATE
MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. SUBVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND FOR THE THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED A BIT DUE TO THE RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THIS WILL CAUSE FUELS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. RH`S
RECOVER SOME MON BUT STILL CRITICAL AND WINDS STRENGTHEN LEADING
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MID WEEK
BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AREAWIDE AT
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...LFR/BJL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.