Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 150749 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 349 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND WINDS HAVE LARGELY DROPPED OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SHOWERS OVER SRN MD ARE LONG SINCE GONE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATED. SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SRN VA AND A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH...OVER NRN PA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN UNDER FAST FLOW AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE TAIL-END OF A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN...AGAIN MIXING DOWN A STIFF BREEZE FROM THE WEST BUT NOT TERRIBLY GUSTY - MAINLY A STEADY WLY WIND AROUND 10MPH. THE INCOMING HIGH WILL HELP DECREASE DEWPOINTS FURTHER TODAY FROM YESTERDAY AND HELP TEMPER OUR HIGHS TO ONLY THE U70S. DEWPOINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY WILL ALLOW OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP DOWN TO SOME OF THEIR LOWEST OF THE SUMMER MONTHS. EXPECTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS/APLCNS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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SATURDAY WILL LOOK/FEEL MORE LIKE THURSDAY THAN TODAY...W/ TEMPS AGAIN CLIMBING BACK INTO THE L-M80S BY MID AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR SWLY WINDS TO PICK UP AND START INCREASING WARMTH/MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET TRANSITIONAL DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY...SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT. DURING THIS TIME...ONLY A FEW PASSING UPPER CLOUD DECKS AND WEAK WLY SFC WINDS THIS AFTN. THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL SWITCH SFC WINDS BACK TO SWLY AND THEN SLY INTO LATE SAT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE NRN BAY - STILL SEEING GUSTS NEAR 15KT W/ THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER STILL DROPPING THESE WINDS OVER SECTIONS OF NE MD. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WLY WINDS THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES WERE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE RANGE ABOVE 3/4-OF A FT FOR THE LATEST H.T. CYCLE BUT NOW DROPPING DOWN TO 3/4` AND LOWER. WITH THE MOON LEAVING FULL STAGE...WE`RE STILL IN THE REALM OF BOTH CYCLES BEING NEAR THE SAME HEIGHT - SO THE NEXT ONE WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL MINOR CF. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS...SPEC W/ A CONTINUED WLY WIND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...GMS SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/GMS MARINE...BJL/GMS

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