Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281432 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1032 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 14Z...LOW PRESSURE IS STILL OVER LAKE ERIE AND WILL ONLY LIFT NORTH TO LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. UPR TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS IS BREAKING INTO WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...EXTENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT TIMES. BREEZY TODAY WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. SKIES CLEAR RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...MIN TEMPS 50S INLAND...LOW 60S TIDEWATER...MID TO UPR 60S NEARSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... NICE DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS OR LEFTOVER STORMS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING AS TROUGH DEEPENS...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTBY...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD RESULT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPREAD INCREASES IN THE MODELS THEREAFTER...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENVELOPING THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SFC FRONT STALLING OUT/WAVERING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. TOUGH TO PAINT ANY PERIOD COMPLETELY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBS WILL ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY AS A STRONG SFC WAVE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS WILL FLUCTUATE A LITTLE MORE WHILE BEING MODULATED BY CLOUDS...PRECIP AND THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR WITH STRATOCU CEILING AROUND 5KFT PIEDMONT AND WEST. BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 12-15KT AND GUSTS TO 20-25KT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MON WITH P6SM SKC. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SCA GUSTS TO 25KT BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CHES BAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z MON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT...AND CHANNELING OVER THE BAY IS POSSIBLE...BUT KEPT GUSTS BELOW THRESHOLD FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A SCA IS LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TURNS WINDS WEST...WHICH SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE LOWER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP WATER LEVELS TODAY. NO FURTHER COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD DAILY MAXIMUMS WERE SET YESTERDAY AT DCA AND BWI AIRPORTS WITH 2.75 AND 3.11 INCHES OF RAIN RESPECTIVELY. THESE BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORDS OF 2.59 INCHES AT DCA SET IN 1881 AND 2.04 INCHES AT BWI SET IN 1883. WITH YESTERDAY`S RAINS JUNE 2015 IS NOW THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT DCA WITH 11.93 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS IN 2006 WHEN 14.02 INCHES FELL. BWI TOTALS FOR JUNE ARE NOW UP TO 13.09 INCHES MAKING IT THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 9.95 INCHES SET IN 1972. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF JUNE WITH CURRENT STANDINGS FOR DCA LIKELY TO HOLD AS IS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534- 537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR NEAR TERM...BAJ/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LFR MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ CLIMATE...LFR

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