Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 130145 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 945 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE LOWER POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING TOWARD THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO AREA. REPOPULATED TEMPERATURES USING A BLEND OF BCSREFS/BCADJMET...YIELDING MINIMA AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A PD OF WETNESS DURG THE DAY SAT AS THE PRVSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLC. IT CERTAINLY HASN`T BEEN WET SO FAR THIS MONTH - IAD HAS ONLY RECORDED 0.14"...DCA 0.20"...CHO 0.27". BWI DID HV A LTL MORE RA ON THE 6TH SO BALT HAS RCVD 0/79" SO FAR. BUT THE AREA CERTAINLY COULD USE SOME RAIN. THIS IS NOT LOOKING TO BE AN OVERLY WET EVENT...ARND 1/4 INCH. HIGHS ARND 70 W OF THE BLUE RDG...M70S E. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE RGN SAT NGT. THERE WL BE A PTNL FOR FOG DVLPMNT OVRNGT SAT INTO SUN MRNG. PLSNT WX AGN XPCTD SAT NGT W/ LOWS DROPPING INTO THE U40S...LM50S E. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA DURG THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. ZONAL 500MB FLOW WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM PRECIPITATION NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER MONDAY. STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ON THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLER...AIRMASS WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID CLOUDS INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT. CIGS LIKELY THEN LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT CHO BEFORE SUNRISE BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MRB/IAD. PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. NO THUNDER EXPECTED ATTM. SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG OVRNGT SAT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG DVLPMNT SUN MRNG. VFR CONDS THEN XPCTD MON. && .MARINE... WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SAT...ALTHO RA IS XPCTD TO BEGIN LATE SAT MRNG AND LAST THRU MID TO LATE AFTN. WILL BE ISSUING SCA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE. SCA MAY NEED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537>543. && $$ BPP/WOODY!/CEM

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