Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 150049 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
849 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High
pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic for the weekend.
Hurricane Jose is presently 1050 miles east of Jacksonville. See
National Hurricane Center bulletins for information on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak area of low pressure will pull northeast away from the
region overnight, slowly being replaced by surface high pressure
by morning, although upper level troughing will linger into
Friday. There are some scattered showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm or two out there this evening, and these will
gradually wane during the late evening and overnight hours.
Clouds will be tougher to get rid of, but some breaks of
clearing will likely develop overnight. These breaks of
clearing, combined with light winds and lingering low level
moisture from any rain, will lead to some fog development.
Density and coverage is still somewhat unclear at this time
given cloud cover and nature of today`s rain, but have shown
patchy/areas of fog later tonight and into early Friday. Highest
threat for more widespread dense fog would be across portions
of the central VA piedmont (Charlottesville-Culpeper) and the
valleys west of the Blue Ridge (including the Shenandoah
Valley). Lows overnight from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure over the area Friday through Saturday night.
Isolated showers will be possible Friday afternoon, otherwise
quiet weather through Saturday night. Highs Friday and Saturday
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will dominate local conditions on Sunday into
Monday as east/northeasterly flow settles over our area with
Hurricane Jose moving north in the west Atlantic. This should
settle conditions for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as
instability increases. A cold front approaches Monday night into
Tuesday, maintaining the chance for showers and thunderstorms
over our area. Wednesday and Thursday seems to be dry with a
strong high pressure building over our area.

Regarding Hurricane Jose, most of the ensemble members keep it
moving north, away from the east coast. Just a few members bring the
storm closer to land. The National Hurricane Center continues to
issue advisories on Hurricane Jose and can be found at the following
website: http:/www.nhc.noaa.gov

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through midnight, although a few
isolated/scattered showers may bring very brief reductions.
Patchy fog will then develop after midnight, with the highest
chances of sub-VFR conditions existing at CHO, but also
possible at IAD/MRB, and to a lesser extent BWI. Conditions
improve to VFR area-wide after 13z or so.

VFR conditions expected Friday night through Tuesday with maybe
periods of sub-VFR conditions at times due to showers and
thunderstorms. Nocturnal/early morning fog possible each day as
well.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds expected to remain below SCA values tonight through
Saturday night.

Dry conditions expected Sunday into Tuesday with maybe afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts could reach small craft
advisory criteria on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to remain about three-quarters of a foot
above normal. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for St.
Mary`s County this evening, and will monitor for Anne Arundel as
well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...MM/ABW
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...MM/IMR/ABW
MARINE...MM/IMR/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM


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