Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 251427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND LINGER OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...1024MB SFC HIGH OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO THE DC AREA TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT FLOW AND ONLY FEW
FAIR CUMULUS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S AND
LOW 60S IN THE CITY CENTERS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE. ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
BUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK...AS OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST SHOWS CRISTOBAL REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST AND
ACCELERATING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE AVERAGE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY...PROMOTING A CHANGE TO EASTERLY
FLOW FOR FRIDAY. THIS MAY TEMPER HEATING A LITTLE...RESULTING IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGE BUMPS BACK NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. BUT WITH MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. OBS HAVE TAKEN
CHO-MRB IN AND OUT OF IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR SHOULD LOCK IN SOON.
MVFR/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT IAD EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AT CHO-IAD-MRB EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF TSRA WITH THE FRONT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO END THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
SHOULD STAY 10-15 KTS AND BELOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT. A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING SFC HIGH AND TS CRISTOBAL WILL LEAD TO E WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SCA IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. WIND SHIFT TO NORTH
OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT CONTINUE ON THE BAY TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ANNAPOLIS AND SW WATERFRONT/DC FOR THE
LESSER HIGH TIDE. THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING MAY
FEATURE MORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






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