Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 190755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...REMAINING NEAR
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...AN UPR TROUGH IS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH THE AXIS JUST
EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND A RICH GULF MOISTURE PLUME UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS RIDING OVER 1026MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERLIN, NH. WIDESPREAD ISENTROPICALLY
INDUCED STRATIFORM RAIN (CERTAINLY A RARITY FOR MID-JULY AROUND
HERE!) IS LIFTING NORTH INTO PA. JUST SPRINKLES EAST OF THE OFFICE
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RAIN BLUE RIDGE AND WEST.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR NORTH...CONTINUING AN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN EDGE OF PRECIP
RETRACTS WEST TO THE ALLEGHENIES...THOUGH THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG BLUE RIDGE AND ITS FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS
LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS...SO WENT LOW 80S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPR 70S WEST. QPF ONLY A TENTH INCH
OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...WEDGE/ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA...PROBABLY
REINFORCED BY THE RAIN. CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH ANY
RAIN LIGHT. MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER COUNTERACTING.

SUNDAY...GLOOMY WEDGE DAY...BUT AT LEAST CLOUD CEILINGS LOOK TO
REMAIN 5KFT OR SO. UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INSTABILITY SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WEST SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDER. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WARM BIAS...SO WENT FOR MAX TEMPS
AROUND 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE XTND LOOKS TO BE A TALE OF A SLOW WARM UP FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS TO END THE WK.

WK TROFFING SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT DURG MON...TO BE FOLLOWED BY
WHAT MIGHT BE REFERRED TO AS A HIGH ZNL UPR LVL PATTERN DURG
MIDWK. THE SWRN U.S. WL SCORCH AS A RDG WHICH MAY REACH 600 DM (!)
FORMS OVR THE 4 CORNERS AREA WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE MID ATLC WL
SEE TEMPS RISE SLOWLY INTO THE LM90S BY WED. LOWS WL CREEP UP INTO
THE M60S BY MIDWEEK...WHICH IS THE CLIMO NORM FOR THIS TIME IN JUL.

THE BETTER TSTM CHCS LOOK TO BE ON THU AS ANOTHER (A SOMEWHAT RARE
TERM AT THIS TIME OF YR) CD FNT/UPR TROF SLIDES OVR THE TOP OF THE
SWRN RIDGE ONTO THE E CST. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE
AREA FRI...BRINGING CLRG SKIES W/ HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE M80S.

&&

.AVIATION /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STABLE ONSHORE FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD MAJORITY OF THE TIME SUN NGT-WED.
BEST CHC OF TSTMS WOULD BE WED..BUT MOST LKLY A BETTER CHC ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. FLOW GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN NGT-WED. CHC OF TSTMS
WED...BUT MOST LKLY A BETTER CHC ON THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!






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