Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 241801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...BUT A BKN CU
DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT FROM THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND ALSO FROM THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID-
MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AXIS OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL SYSTEM SWINGS EAST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM CANADIAN TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WITH THIS FROPA BEFORE COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT RETREATS AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KMRB AND KCHO. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS IT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT INCLUDING THE
TANGIER SOUND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF TIDE CYCLES...MEANING TIDAL ISSUES
WILL LINGER. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE
TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WATER LEVELS WILL BE NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SINCE THAT WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY TO
ST MARYS...AND FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NEAR WASHINGTON
DC AND ALEXANDRIA.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANOMALIES FOR PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY AROUND
NATIONAL HARBOR AND FOR BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES...BUT WATER
LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW THE HIGHER MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
THESE AREAS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WERE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS FOR TUE MORNING EITHER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/AEB
MARINE...BJL/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL






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