Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 132123
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
POST-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE SWITCHED NORTHWEST AND INCREASED WITH 20
KNOT GUSTS. IN SPITE OF NW FLOW...WATER LEVELS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD LATE THIS EVENING AT ANNAPOLIS SO
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AROUND THEIR HIGH TIDE OF
10PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40F IN ELEVATED VALLEYS ABOVE THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THERE...BUT NO FROST
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AS MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

HIGH PRES WL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY TNGT...ALLOWING
SKIES TO CLR. AS MENTIONED ERLR THERE WERE TEMPS IN THE U20S IN
THE UPR MIDWEST THIS MRNG. WHILE IT WON`T BE EVEN CLOSE TO THAT
COLD IN THE MID ATLC OVRNGT IT IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE AIR
MASS. SUN MRNG LOWS XPCTD TO DROP TO A40 IN THE HIGHLANDS...
PERHAPS EVEN U30S. THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY WL ONLY DROP INTO
U50S...BUT MUCH OF THE CENTER OF THE FA SHOULD DROP TO THE
U40S/A50.

NO FOG OVERNIGHT FROM DRIER AIR MIXING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT`S LOOKING LK A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BLDS OVR THE
RGN. M SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGHS IN THE M70S.

NO PROBS WX WISE FORESEEN SUN NGT/MON. ANOTHER COOLER NGT SUN NGT
W/ LOWS GETTING INTO THE 40S W OF I-95.

SHORT WV IN THE UPR FLOW MON NGT WL BRING AN INCRS IN CLD CVR. MON
NGT`S TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABT 10 DEGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE ITSELF SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER FM THE PD OF MVFR XPRNCD LATE
THIS MRNG/ERLY THIS AFTN. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK AND SCATTER
OUT...BECOMING COMPLETELY CLEAR TONIGHT. NO FOG AS NWLY FLOW MIXES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR/NLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST.
SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUES FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF SANDY PT SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NWLY/NLY FLOW (MAINLY LIGHT)
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS. HIGH TIDE 10 PM THERE SHOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND 2.4 FT MLLW SINCE THE CURRENT ANOMALY OF ABOUT
0.9FT WILL DROP AND MAY STILL BE AROUND 0.7 FT AT HIGH TIDE
(PREDICTED TIDE IS 1.7 FT MLLW).

THE TIDAL ANOMALY ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC IS ALSO DROPPING...
ALREADY BELOW THE DEPARTURE REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT
THE SENSITIVE SW WATERFRONT GAUGE SITE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
BLOWOUT TIDE. LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE PM TIDE PRIOR TO
WIND SHIFT MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING. ANNAPOLIS IS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. THINK THE WIND SHIFT WILL REACH BALTIMORE AND DC
FIRST. WILL BE ADDING WORDING TO THE HWO.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WOODY!/KLW






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