Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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435
FXUS61 KLWX 270110
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS THE FNTL BDRY HAS SLID FM SRN PA TO ARND THE PTMC
RVR BTWN 19Z AND 00Z. THE BNDRY XTNDS ACROS KY TO A LOW IN OK.
ALONG THIS BNDRY AREA SVR TSTMS ARE FIRING. A SVR TSTM WTCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE XTRM SW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA...BUT ATTM STORMS
APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS THESE PROGRESS EWD.

FNT WL CONT TO SLIDE FURTHER S OVRNGT..DRAWING COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR INTO THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

WE WL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BNDRY WED AS THE FNT CONTS TO
SLOWLY SAG SWD. THERE WL BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING PTTN IN PLACE THO.
THEREFORE...POPS /MAINLY CHC SHRA/ WL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE DURING
THE DAY. THE MTNS WL BE BEST SITUATED TO RECEIVE RAFL ON WED.

THE ISENT LIFT WL IMPRV THU AS LOPRES EMERGES FM THE PLAINS. AS
SUCH...POPS RISE BACK TO LKLY. AM PRESERVING THE SHRA EMPHASIS.
ANY INSTBY SHUD BE MEAGER-- AND ELEVATED. PWATS RISE ABV AN
INCH...SO QPF WL BE BIGGEST OUTCOME /AND ITS NEEDED!/.

WL HV A CPL OF COOLER DAYS...SPCLY THU DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL BE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE
SAT WITH SFC TROUGH NEARBY... BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA DRY.

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ON SUN BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP. LOW PRESS MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT INTO MON INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO CLEAR UP ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ALTHO CLDY VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES. ST MAY LWR ENUF TO DROP
CIGS INTO MVFR BY MRNG.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD CONT WED AS SFC FLOW WL BE NELY...BCMG ELY.
AT FIRST...CLDS SHUD BE THE BIGGEST PLAYER. MARITIME ONNSHORE FLOW
CONTS INTO THU. PCPN CHCS WL INCREASE AS THIS SAME PTTN BECOMES
MORE PROLONGED. THEREFORE...FLGT RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE
LKLY...W/ A BETTER CHC AT SOME IFR DVLPG.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT. THEN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUN AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER OUR REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

FLOW BACKS NLY TNGT AND BECOMES ELY BY WED. ELY FLOW CONTS THRU
THU. WINDS SHUD BE BLO SCA CONTS THRU THIS TIME.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRI INTO SUN AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS PSBL FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT AND SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/IMR



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