Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 161838 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic tonight and hold through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front has already moved offshore, and skies are clearing across the forecast area. Cold air stratocumulus has developed across the higher elevations of the Appalachians; the best shortwave and upper jet support for lift resides to the west as well. Northwest winds have been gusting up to 25 mph. The cold advection and compressional warming have been balancing each other out, with temperatures remaining fairly steady int he lower-mid 60s. Anticipate that clouds will dissipate quickly toward sunset. Its a bit trickier when winds will decouple, but much of the gradient should be gone by/soon after midnight. With clear skies and dry air, temperatures should drop rapidly. Pattern supports undercutting MOS. Utilizing a bias-corrected raw consensus, frost should be fairly widespread west of I-95 and the mountains of Highland/Pendleton/Grant Counties should achieve a freeze. Have issued appropriate Warnings/Advisories. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be building over the Mid Atlantic though the period. There won`t be a lot of distinction between the days... each will be sunny, and clear at night. Temperatures will be a little below normal... more so Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, when more Frost/Freeze headlines are possible (where growing season lingers). Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday as the thermal trough exits. Accepted a blend for high temps, and using the bias-corrected consensus grids for lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather conditions are expected Thursday into Monday as surface high pressure is centered near or over our area. High pressure will begin to slowly move offshore on Saturday. A cold front approaches on Monday. High temperatures will be gradually increasing from the low 70s on Thursday to the upper 70s on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 5 days. Only item of operational impact would be winds this afternoon...gusting to near 25 kt...which will diminish this evening. && .MARINE... Northwest winds gusting 20-25 kt on the waters this afternoon. The gradient will be slow to relax, and mixing will be favorable well into the evening. In addition, winds 1000-2000 ft up will be better poised to mix over the warm waters compared to land. Therefore, current line-up of Advisories ending tonight or Tuesday morning look good. High pressure will move overhead for mid-late week, which will lead to lighter winds. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ003>006- 501>503-505-507. VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>031- 039-040-050-051-501-502-505-506. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504. WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ050>053- 055-503-504. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ501-502-505-506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>533- 539>542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-535- 536-538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...HTS MARINE...HTS

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