Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 081904 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 204 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is moving through the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. High pressure returns to the area Friday into the weekend. Another cold front crosses the area Monday followed by a reinforcing cold front Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... Weatherwise the cold front pushing through the Mid Atlantic this afternoon is farily tepid...but looking at observations there is a clear delineation: eastern PA temperatures are in the low/mid 40s while western PA is in the upper 20s. Winds have begun to increase in the our area. This should continue for the remainder of the afternoon as colder air is ushered into the region. Upslope snow showers are expected to begin tonight along the western slopes of the Highlands. Models are projecting very low accumulation..and we continue to forecast less than 3" so we will hold on issuing an advisory. It will remain breezy overnight. Lows primarily in the mid 20s...around 30 in the cities...teens in the Highlands. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure to be in control of the weather Friday-Saturday night. Temps will be several degrees below normal (Mid 40s/upper 20s). East of I-95 will struggle to reach 40...35-40 west of I-95 to the Highlands...20s in the Highlands. Wind chills will make it feel more like 25-30 in most locales. Snow showers expected to continue in the Highlands through at least Friday night. A cold Friday night with lows in the 20s everywhere except the colder Highlands. Highs Saturday will be quite similar to Friday. High pressure will settle over the region Saturday night providing good radiational cooling conditions. Lows primarily in the lower to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure overhead Sunday will move offshore as a southerly flow builds over our region. A weakening upper level shortwave could bring precipitation north of the area, but cannot rule out precipitation reaching out over the CWA. If it does, temperatures may be cold enough, mainly at higher elevations, to see some type of frozen precipitation... but there is still uncertainty on this. Warm front moves over our area Sunday night, bringing a chance of precipitation as a low pressure moves from the Mid-West into the Great Lakes. Wintry precipitation possible as temperatures may be near or below freezing in some areas before the warm front moves through. The low will continue its track northeast and push a cold front over our region Monday into Tuesday... with rain more likely ahead of the front. Conditions will be drying Tuesday into Tuesday night. Guidance disagrees for Wednesday and Thursday with GFS bringing another cold front on Wednesday, increasing the chance of precipitation over our area... then dry conditions on Thursday. The Euro is drier with a couple of disturbances bringing a chance of precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR expected tonight through Saturday night. Gusty NW winds tonight through Friday. Mainly dry/VFR conditions on Sunday as high pressure moves offshore. Upper level disturbance and frontal boundary could bring some precipitation to our region Sunday into Monday... with some sub-VFR periods. Drier expected conditions Tuesday. && .MARINE... Winds beginning to pick up on the waters. SCA in effect for all waters through Friday evening...continuing past midnight Mainly dry conditions on Sunday as high pressure moves offshore. Upper level disturbance and frontal boundary could bring some precipitation Sunday into Monday. Dryer conditions expected Tuesday. Small craft advisory may be needed Sunday and Monday afternoons. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>533- 536-538>541. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ534-537- 542-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ535. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/IMR

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