Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 251850 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Ridge of high pressure will hold through the end of the week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for mid next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Tranquil conditions tonight under ridging sfc and aloft. A remnant shower or two could make into the Appalachians tonight from convection that is expected to develop over southeast OH and western WV. Warmer tonight due to rising dewpoints.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Moisture increases from the west early Thu with showers likely west of the Blue Ridge. Developing lee-side trof in the afternoon could result in scattered showers and t-storms further east to the Chesapeake Bay. Mid-level cloud deck will likely keep CAPE values down so no severe wx is expected. Sfc trof shifts east Thu night with convection diminishing quickly with sunset Thu night. Additional height rises are fcst for Fri which may limit t-storm coverage, but heat and instability builds with 90F deg readings possible and CAPE values rising over 1000 J/kg. Best convective coverage appears to be over the southern Shenandoah valley over the higher terrain with mainly hit and miss showers or t-storms elsewhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Fairly nice weather for late May on Saturday, with temperatures in the M80s, dewpoints in L/M60s, and a light southerly wind. Warming temperatures aloft, associated with building heights, expected to keep thunderstorm activity isolated and confined to the higher terrain. Predictability becomes muddled beginning Sunday. Guidance has slowed with bringing precipitation into the area in advance of disturbance developing off the southeast coast. This could keep most of the area dry through the day Sunday. Precipitation chances increase into early next week as disturbance approaches into a warm and moist antecedent environment. Regardless of rain timing, onshore flow will keep temperatures below normal Sunday through midweek.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Vfr conditions through 18Z Thu. Sct afternoon thunderstorms expected Thu which may affect some of the terminals. Hit and miss convection Fri afternoon. VFR conditions Saturday. Potential for showers/thunderstorms increase late Sunday evening into early next week with sub-VFR conditions possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Possible SCA conditions Thu night over lower bay in srly flow due to channelling.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...MSE/LFR MARINE...MSE/LFR

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