Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 020754 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE METRO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...KRW SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/KRW MARINE...BJL/KRW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM

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