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908
FXUS61 KLWX 111344
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
944 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure sliding by to our north today will drag a cold
front through the region later this afternoon into this evening.
Drier conditions return with brief high pressure Sunday into
early next week. High pressure pushes offshore by the middle of
next week leading to a return of warmer temperatures and
unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Drier conditions and ample sunshine expected for the rest of
this morning and at least the first half of the afternoon.
Slightly below normal temperatures in the 60s to around 70F
today, with partly cloudy skies as deep mixing results in fair
weather cumulus clouds.

An upper trough and associated surface cold front look to
approach the area later today into this evening, bringing
widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Given the
timing being later in the afternoon/evening, best chance for
thunderstorms seems to be areas west of the I-95 corridor,
especially west of the Blue Ridge mid-afternoon. Showers slowly
depart to the east overnight, as most of the region returns to
dry conditions by Sunday morning. Low temperatures generally
drop to the upper 40s to low 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will move east of the area Sunday
morning, though some residual moisture on the backside of the
broad low could bring some on-and-off showers to the eastern
half of the area through Sunday afternoon.

Conditions dry out Sunday evening as high pressure builds in
from the west. Highs will generally be in the 60s, with some
low 70s possible in Central VA Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows
mostly in the 40s to low 50s.

For Monday, expect dry conditions with high temperatures well
into the 70s. A slight chance of showers will return that
evening ahead of the next approaching trough, but timing is
still a bit uncertain with that. If anything, model guidance
seems to be a touch slower, so rain may not even arrive until
Tuesday. Overall, would plan for a very average day for mid-May
with pretty low humidity as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves
eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms are
possible during this time, but overall instability appears to be
limited. The most widespread rain chances will occur Tuesday
afternoon and evening as lift and moisture flux maximize ahead of
the low`s approach. A period of moderate to locally heavy rain is
possible, but richer moisture will likely remain south of the area.
Ultimately the low is forecast to move to the east Wednesday, but
there appears to be plenty of wrap around moisture that will keep
shower chances high through the day. Despite the clouds and precip,
high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal.

Thursday still appears to be a relative break with seasonable
temperatures as ridging briefly builds overhead. However, this could
change as model spread increases in the upper level pattern. Despite
this divergence, there is enough agreement on a trough emerging
toward the eastern US on Friday that rain chances will increase
again.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions at all terminals now, except for MRB where MVFR
CIGs hold on through late morning. Light northerly winds are
beginning to shift to south/southeast.

A weak cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening. The
highest chances for thunder will be at MRB, IAD, and DCA. BWI
and MTN may be impacted later into the evening, though chances
are lower given there will be much less instability.

The cold front sweeps through early Sunday, causing winds to
shift northwest behind the front. VFR conditions expected
through Monday as high pressure returns.

Sub-VFR ceilings along with showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure system moves slowly
across the area.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA winds through the rest of this morning and early
afternoon as winds shift from north to south/southeast.
Sustained winds will be around 5-10 knots with occasional gusts
to 15 knots.

A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to the local waters late afternoon into this
evening. Strong storms are not currently forecast, though
cannot rule out a few gusts to around 30 knots in any stronger
shower or storm.

Winds increase this evening into part of tonight just ahead of
the approaching cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the waters of the Chesapeake Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac.
Winds should diminish late tonight.

For Sunday, winds could increase yet again in the afternoon as
northwest winds increase behind a cold front that crosses the
local waters Sunday morning. This could necessitate an SCA, but
not confident enough this far out at this point.

Winds will then taper off Sunday night through Monday as high
pressure returns to the region.

Advisories may be needed Tuesday and Tuesday night in southerly flow
as a low pressure system approaches. The low will pass to the east
Wednesday, and additional advisories may be needed in northwest flow
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few thunderstorms are possible both
Tuesday and Wednesday as well.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal anomalies have remained nearly steady or slightly
increased this morning, with widespread minor coastal flooding
ongoing with the high tide cycle. Coastal Flood Warnings have
now dropped for Straits Point, and continue for DC SW Waterfront
through early afternoon.

Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended for Annapolis and
Straits Point through the next two high tide cycles (this
evening, and Sunday morning). Elsewhere, additional advisories
are likely to be needed for the Sunday morning high tide.

Tidal anomalies should begin to drop off by Sunday when
offshore northwest flow kicks in across the area.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT
     Sunday for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ530>534-537-538-543.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...