Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KLWX 031915 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 315 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHEAST BREEZE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT CAUSE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOL AIR IN PLACE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BECOME DEEPER WHILE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS AND MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE MARINE LAYER MAY MIX OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM NC THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE SHORE...NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS SO THERE IS HOPE FOR AT LEAST PEEKS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT WHEN THAT FINALLY BREAKS OUT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS 70F. WENT WITH BLEND OF MAV/MET/GMOS WITH GENERALLY MID 70S. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH ISO THUNDER THREAT I-95 AND EAST...THEN FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH LIGHT NORTH FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S. ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ONTO THE EAST EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL EXIST IN SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM UP AND BECOME MORE UNSTABLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TUESDAY TO SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS TONIGHT. LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MVFR LEVELS LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED TOWARD CHO AND DCA TERMINALS AS THE FRONT WILL BE BISECTING THE REGION. WINDS NORTH BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NEAR MRB AND CHO WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS NORTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER DURING THIS TIME. NO MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY INCREASE A BIT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR AREAS LIKE SOLOMONS ISLAND AND ANNAPOLIS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANOMALIES THIS EVENING TO SEE IF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ538-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-536- 537-540>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BJL SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/KLW MARINE...BAJ/BJL/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.