Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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205 FXUS61 KLWX 290725 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 325 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today before moving offshore. Tropical Depression 8 is expected to approach Cape Hatteras Tuesday night before recurving to the northeast. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns for late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front stretching from the eastern Great Lakes to Michigan and Minnesota. High pressure continues to reside over the Mid Atlantic states. Another warm day is expected with highs around 90. Isolated afternoon convection will be possible over the mountains but the better chances will exist to our north and west in association with the weakening frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Diurnally driven convection will wane this evening then another warm overnight. Lows will range from the lower 60s in the Highlands to the lower 70s in the cities and along the Bay. Warmth will continue Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s/90. Again there could be a chance for afternoon convection...primarily over the mountains. Upper wind field will be weak which will keep severe chances low. Convection chances will drop off overnight leaving the final night of August with lows in the mid 60s...except warmer in the normal locations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front will be approaching from the northwest late Wednesday. Out ahead of the front will see another hot day with temperatures up around the 90 degree mark. Instability expected to be relatively limited with dew points holding in the 60s and presence of warm mid level air. However should still be enough to initiate some showers/thunderstorms in the higher terrain and along the front as it propagates eastward Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Upper trough and associated energy will move overhead on Thursday, which will keep the chances for showers and a couple of thunderstorms around. But with cooler air behind the front and presence of cloud cover, instability should once again remain fairly limited. Highs mainly in the 80s. Will continue to monitor tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico for late in the week but upper trough overhead and surface high gradually building towards and into the region are currently expected to suppress any system to the south and east. May see a lingering isolated shower/storm Friday with upper trough overhead, with dry weather currently forecast for the weekend. Highs in the 70s/80s Friday and over the weekend. Lows drop off into the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected today through Tuesday. Thunderstorm development possible over the mountains both days but probability of storms being near airports is low. Predominantly VFR expected Wednesday through Friday. Only restrictions would come in some patchy fog at night/early morning and any scattered showers/thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds expected to remain below SCA values today through Tuesday. Cold frontal system will cross the waters Wednesday night and into Thursday with potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Small Craft Advisory may be needed Thursday night and Friday with increasing northerly winds behind front. && .CLIMATE... Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 28) Site Rank Average Temperature DC 3 80.5 Balt 15* 77.3 IAD 3 77.3 * tied with 1937, 1994, and 2002 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.