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401
FXUS61 KLWX 101848
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Shower chances continue today as a stalled frontal boundary sits
south of the region. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are
likely Saturday and Sunday as another front passes through. Drier
conditions return with brief high pressure Monday into Tuesday. High
pressure pushes offshore by the middle of next week leading to a
return of warmer temperatures and unsettled conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A weak trough over the area, combined with a slow moving backdoor
cold front and CAD wedge continue to produce widespread light rain
and showers across the area. Areas north of I-66/US-48 are starting
to transition from stratiform light rain to more convective light
showers. Expect this to continue through the evening, before
diminishing overnight. To the south of I-66 where there has been
more instability built up through the afternoon, scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are ongoing. This activity will push to the
south/east through sunset.

Additional lower clouds build in this evening, then conditions begin
to dry out for most overnight. Noticeably cooler conditions tonight
as lows settle in the 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A second upper trough and associated surface cold front look to
cross the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, bringing
widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The system moves
east of the area Sunday morning, though some residual moisture on
the backside of the broad low could bring some on-and-off showers to
the eastern half of the area through Sunday afternoon. Conditions
dry out Sunday evening as high pressure builds in.

Cooler temperatures through the weekend. Highs in the 60s each day,
with some low 70s possible in Central VA Sunday afternoon. Overnight
lows mostly in the 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Monday looks to be our driest day of the next 7 days with mid level
ridging overhead and surface high pressure sitting just to the south
of the region. This will yield a seasonable Spring day with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

Unfortunately, the dry time will be brief as an upper trough
develops in the lee of the Rockies, and deepens as it tracks
eastward from the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the middle
part of workweek. Meanwhile, high pressure will shift off the VA/NC
coast Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for south to southeasterly
return flow to ensue. This will allow Atlantic and eventually Gulf
of Mexico moisture to increase across the region yielding daily
isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Uncertainty remains in the placement and timing of the heaviest
precipitation with a focus midweek (late Tuesday into Wednesday).
This is due largely in part to a warm frontal boundary that will be
lifting northward into the region. The severe weather threat appears
to be minimal with richer moisture suppressed toward the Gulf Coast.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible especially during the midweek
timeframe due to increasing moisture and the placement of a warm
front draped nearby. High temperatures will remain at or slightly
below normal midweek. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s Wednesday
and mid to upper 70s Thursday. Lows will fall into the mid to upper
50s.

Low pressure and it`s resulting trough depart offshore Thursday into
Friday. A cold front will quickly follow bringing in drier air as
high pressure builds over eastern Canada. The dry time once again
will be short lived as another trough and area of low pressure
approach from the Ohio River Valley.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR to IFR conditions in light rain continue to impact most
terminals through late this evening. Showers around CHO this
afternoon should dissipate after sunset, then lower CIGs to around
IFR could build back in for the evening and first half of tonight.
Conditions begin to improve late tonight.

VFR conditions are likely for most of the weekend, though abundant
cloud cover is expected through at least Sunday morning. Showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms moving through Saturday evening into
Saturday night could produce some sub-VFR conditions. Light north
winds Saturday morning quickly shift to south by late morning. A
cold front sweeps through early Sunday, with winds shifting to
northwest behind the front.

VFR conditions are expected with high pressure nearby. Sub VFR
ceilings along with a showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of low pressure and front push into
the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to linger Thursday
with high pressure briefly returning Friday. South to southwesterly
winds are expected Monday before switching to the south and
southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusts of 15 to 20 kts can be
expected each afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA winds continue at times across all the waters through tonight,
though the time for strongest winds looks to be this evening into
early tonight. Winds quickly diminish overnight, except for the
southern Chesapeake Bay where gusty winds could last through early
Saturday morning.

Rain showers and thunderstorms could impact the waters again
Saturday evening into Saturday night, though not looking at any
strong storms at this point. Winds look to remain below SCA levels
through the weekend. However, will need to keep an eye for Sunday
afternoon as northwest winds increase behind a cold front that
crosses the local waters Sunday morning.

SCA conditions will likely continue Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
as low pressure approaches from the south and high pressure pushes
offshore. South to southeasterly winds will gusts up to 20 kts each
day with the potential for a few thunderstorms on both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon/evening.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal anomalies remain elevated through tonight, then drop off by
Sunday when offshore northwest flow kicks in across the area. Could
see additional minor coastal flooding during high tide this
evening.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533-
     538>541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537-
     542-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR