Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KLWX 291842
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today before moving
offshore. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday
night. High pressure returns for late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered to the northeast extending back across the
DELMARVA region, sandwiched between a weak frontal boundary off
the Carolina coast and an approaching cold front currently just to
the north. This will keep generally dry yet warm conditions in
place through the afternoon hours even as the front slowly slips
to the south. General agreement in the latest models showing the
weakening/dissipation of the front south of the Mason-Dixon. Over
the western area of the CWA, terrain with the increased
instability will aid in producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Weak flow overall so not anticipating much in terms
of severe, but any storm could produce brief heavy rain.
Loss of heating tonight will lead to decreasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather the second half of the
night with lows dropping into the 60s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models suggesting a weak nearly stationary boundary remains in
placed over portions of the area Tuesday as near zonal flow
minimizes any further southern progression of the front. Another
warm day with afternoon convection possible, especially out west
over the higher elevations.
By Wednesday, a cold front will slowly approach from the west,
eventually passing through Wednesday night. This will bring
another chance for showers and thunderstorms, though now possible
across the entire CWA. The above normal temps will continue
through this time period.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front dropping south of the area by Thursday morning is
expected to push Tropical Depression 8 out to sea, avoiding any
significant impacts to the area. For the latest of TD 8, please see
the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
An unusually strong surface high will build into the region from the
north behind the front and persist through the end of the week
bringing slightly below normal temperatures and a much drier
Tropical Depression 9 (or whatever becomes of it) is then forecast
to pass well south and east of the area over the weekend, again
preventing significant impacts. However, its future is much less
certain given the time range. Again, for the latest forecasts on TD
9, please see products from the National Hurricane Center.
A gradual warming trend is then forecast by the end of the weekend
into early next week as high pressure moves offshore and establishes
itself over the northwestern Atlantic.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through the end of the week. Only
restrictions would come in some patchy fog at night/early morning
and any scattered showers/thunderstorms late Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds through the period 10 knots or less,
Winds expected to remain below SCA values today through Wednesday.
Northerly channeling behind a departing cold front may
result in Small Craft Advisory level winds Thursday into Thursday
night, gradually subsiding into Friday as high pressure builds into
Water levels are slowly rising along the western shores of the
Chesapeake Bay this afternoon. These elevated water levels are
forecasted to remain in place through at least Tuesday night with
persisting northeast to east flow. With tidal anomalies around
a half to three-quarters of a foot above normal, minor coastal
flooding is possible at Annapolis late tonight and then again late