Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 251844 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 144 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region late today. That will push our recent airmass with clouds, showers, and fog to our south. High pressure with mild temperatures will move over the area for the early and middle work week. Our next area of low pressure will slide east over the region between Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Overcast will remain, but rain has largely exited the region this early afternoon - except close to the Bay which will exit soon. Temp forecast will continue to be a struggle as lower 60s in the central Shen Valley early this afternoon will be trying to dislodge the cold air damming and temps around 50 over the metros. Went on the far pessimistic side of temp guidance for today, and that may still not be cold enough for the metros. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will remain through tonight until slowly breaking down from NW to SE tomorrow during the day. A weak low scurrying along the front to our south will temporarily swing some showers back north towards our southern tier across central VA and S MD. At this point, expecting they will stay just to our south. But enough of a threat to include chance and PoPs down there Mon morning. After that, mild high pressure moves across the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A high pressure system will be moving away from our area on Wednesday over Atlantic waters. Return flow will settle over our area with high temperatures reaching the 50s and low 60s. Mid level energy and a lifting warm front may cause showers on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A low pressure system will develop over the Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday which will bring a very moist air mass over our region. Precipitation associated to this system could begin early on Thursday. The low will then push a cold front over us Thursday night into Friday, as it lingers and intensifies offshore. Precipitation could last into early Saturday. Expecting rain to be dominant p- type...but upslope snow showers in the mountains are expected late Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds over our area and remains into Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The big questions are in the next few hours as to the breakdown of the low cigs. Just about every piece of guidance shows them breaking down quickly this afternoon. But obs at 18z show them holding tough where you would expect damming...all the way down to CHO and EZF. Vsbys should be much quicker to ease...where the haven`t already. Expect VFR tonight thru Tue with high pressure moving in. Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday with scattered showers over our area. A more substantial period of sub-VFR is expected Thu into Friday as low pressure moves through the area. && .MARINE... Marine fog and some gusty winds south of Annapolis and Indian Head will be the main points of contention in the short term. Many models showing marine fog being much slower to depart than what is over land...possibly lasting through tonight in places. Small Craft Adv is up for the above areas where winds are expected to gust around 20 kt this afternoon. After that...no marine concerns through midweek with high pressure moving over the waters. Winds will remain below SCA criteria Wednesday and into Thursday night. Winds will likely increase enough for advisories Friday as low pressure intensifies offshore. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CS NEAR TERM...CS SHORT TERM...CS LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...CS/IMR MARINE...CS/IMR

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