Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 221833 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 233 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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A BNDRY STRETCHES FM IL/OH INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD RW FM ALLEGANY TO ST. MARY`S CO`S. IF ANY BRKS IN THE CLDS DVLP THESE COULD GROW TO TSTM LVL...BUT SVR THREAT IS LIMITED. SHOWERS DO HV ENOUGH MVMNT THAT IT APPEARS THAT FLD THREAT WL BE NEGLIBLE. AFTN HIGH TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN LM80S. NOT A BIG DROP IN TEMPS OVRNGT - XPCT LOWS TO BE IN MU60S W OF I-95...L70S E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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THE AIR MASS OVR THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT. SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN. LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGS BLO THAT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS WELL. RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THIS COLD FROPA.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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CLDY CONDS XPCTD OVRNGT. WHILE THERE WL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE THE CLD CVR SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT FOG DVLPMNT. AGN CLDY DURG FIRST PART OF SAT...BUT THEN CLRG FM THE N IN THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/SAT. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL FOR THE RMDR OF THE AFTN/EVE. COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/AEB

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