Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280748 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 348 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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RGN ESCAPED THE SVR THREAT SUN NGT - RCVD A REPORT OF A TRE DOWN IN BALT CO. STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO RCV MORE REPORTS AFTR SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL THE BULLET WAS DODGED. LOW PRES NOW OVR LAKE ERIE W/ AN ATTENDANT CD FNT MOVG INTO WRN PA. THIS WL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA TDA...MOVG OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS AFTN...W/ THE PSBLTY OF IN-CLD LTNG BUT NO SVR THREAT. AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH TEMPS WL TOP OUT BLO CLIMO NORMS - GNRLY LM80S... U80S PSBL IN THE CITIES...MU70S IN THE MTNS. IN ADTN IT WL BECOME BRZY AFTR MID MRNG IN THE POST FNTL AIR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR. LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS 75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AT 06Z VLIFR CONDS OCCURRING AT MRB. AS THE FNT DRAWS CLOSER THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE CONDS ARE VFR. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SOME AFTN INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS OVR 20 KT FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN. VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA WINDS XPCTD TDA - FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT THRU MID MRNG FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER PART OF THE CHES BAY...AND THEN FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR THE LATE MRNG/AFTN AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU. NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS

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