Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 081443 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 943 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front moves through the Mid-Atlantic today. High pressure returns to the area Friday into the weekend. Another cold front crosses the area Monday followed by another reinforcing cold front Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Gusty winds up to 25 mph developing this afternoon. Highs peak in the M/U40s...tumbling tonight behind cold front. Westerly flow will promote the development of upslope snow showers overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... On Friday Mid-Atlantic will be sandwiched between Canadian high pressure building into the area from the central CONUS and trough of low pressure departing the NE CONUS...with a strong cold air advection pattern. Thus, expect a blustery and cold day...with wind gusts up to 25-30 mph and highs AOB 40F. Additionally, wind chills expected to be AOB freezing all day. Strong low-level upslope component through a moist layer will allow snow showers to continue Friday into Saturday morning. While low-end advisory level snowfall remains possible...current forecast keeps storm total amounts between 2-3 inches for the entire event (roughly 24 hours). High pressure continues to build overhead Friday night through Saturday night...with cold weather continuing. Lows Saturday and Sunday morning AOB 30F. Highs Saturday similar to Friday...with most places AOB 40F...though winds expected to be lighter as high pressure is overhead by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term is a bit active, continuing the recent trend started at the end of November. Starting on Sunday, we have a fast zonal flow aloft. We`ll have a stationary front in the area with perhaps a little overruning precipitation, most likely north of the CWA. Any precipitation that makes it into the CWA may be wintry, at least partly, given a cold atmosphere, but a lot of uncertainty on this. Highs will be chilly, 30s north and 40s further south. The fast zonal flow aloft buckles just slightly as a shortwave moves across the region later on Monday. At the surface, a wave of low pressure will ride across the area, but it looks like it will cross to our north. While the odds of wintry precipitation will still exist Sunday night, by Monday it appears the low pushes a warm front north of the area and most of our CWA will likely end up rain. Highs will rise into the 40s to lower 50s. After a short break Monday night into Tuesday, another disturbance is progged to move late Tuesday and Wednesday next week. By this time however, guidance gets into some significant disagreement, with varying strength of the next trough. GFS has a signficant storm, though we stay on the warm side until it passes, while EC is much weaker with little precip. Either way, we end up cold late next week, but temps middle of next week are highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions tonight with light flow. A cold front crosses the area from the west. Gusty NW winds expected this afternoon through Friday...along with the possibility of some low level turbulence. VFR conditions prevail Saturday through Saturday night...with relatively light winds as high pressure builds over the area. Sub VFR possible Sunday night and Monday with another storm system moving through. && .MARINE... A cold front moves through the waters later this morning with WNW winds increasing to gusts up to 30 kt through the afternoon. SCA begins at 10 AM for most waters...and 2 PM for southern MD waters. SCA then continues for all waters through Friday and will likely need to be extended for at least a few hours Friday night into Saturday morning. While a few isolated gale force wind gusts are possible late tonight into Friday...most areas should just have solid SCA conditions. Winds begin to diminish Saturday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Relatively light winds Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure resides over the area. Winds may increase Sunday and Monday as another system approaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... St. Mary`s County has gone past the high tide cycle...ending minor coastal flood threat for time being. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ530>533-535- 536-538>541. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ534-537-542-543. && $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PREVIOUS...MSE/RCM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.