Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281433 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday. Weak low pressure may affect the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region for midweek. A cold front may push through the region at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Another warm day in store for the region with surface high pressure remaining in place under a sprawling ridge aloft. In terms of precip, expecting most of the CWA to remain dry. Isolated thunderstorms will pop up mainly west of the Blue Ridge and closer to the Mason-Dixon. Less forcing both at the surface and aloft than previous days would suggest less of a threat for severe though with PWATs from the morning sounding showing around 1.3 inches, brief heavy rainfall is possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Lows in the 60s...possibly around 70 in the cities. After tonight the forecast becomes more interesting. NHC shows a tropical depression about 300 miles SE of coastal SC. This looks to slowly track NW and into SC Sunday night...spreading moisture northward along the east coast. Sunday afternoon and night look to be the best times for rain...with the eastern parts of the forecast area having the highest POPs/QPF. Increased cloud cover will lead to lower high temps...but still around 80. This storm is still not very well organized...and rainfall totals are very much in question. Depending upon track over an inch will be possible I-95 and east but confidence is low at the moment. Later shifts will have updated guidance to hone totals/location in better. It appears that the low should be whisked out to sea Monday providing for clearing skies. Highs in the lower 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Given the current forecast track of the tropical system, the local area will be under the influence of slightly-building ridging on Tuesday. With several runs of consensus now pegging a dry day, our forecast will go in that direction as well. Can`t totally rule out isolated terrain-induced convection along the Central Blue Ridge, but not worth mentioning at this point. Models showing easterly flow developing with increased moisture on Wednesday. 00z GFS develops convection mainly in the western half of the forecast area, while the 12z ECMWF was dry for that time period. Ultimately the location of the tropical system at that time will likely play a role in which solution turns out correct. Leaning toward the drier solution however. Either way, the upper ridge begins to break down by Thursday, allowing rain chances to increase in the Highlands and dropping high temps a bit. A cold front approaches by Friday with an even better chance of rain and temperatures finally returning to near normal. There are definite signs in the models of an upper pattern shift back to an eastern CONUS trough by the end of the forecast period; however, I don`t yet see strong signals of the cold, dreary weather of much of May returning just yet. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Expecting VFR conditions for the TAF period. Not anticipating precipitation threat at any of the TAF sites through at least tonight, with the next chance for impact coming after daybreak Sunday. As the rain and thunderstorms move in, sub-VFR conditions will become more likely. Winds generally southerly 10 knots or less through Sunday night becoming variable on Monday. VFR conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Generally sub-SCA conditions on all the waters this afternoon through Sunday night. Brief period of gusts to 20 knots might occur on the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay late this afternoon into the evening, but not expecting to last long enough and cover enough area to warrant a SCA. Will cover with MWS if needed. Rain expected to overspread the waters Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Improving conditions expected Monday. Generally light winds and dry conditions expected for much of the extended forecast period over the waters. Southerly channeling may begin to develop Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Update...Sears Previous Discussion...Woody!/JE

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