Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 301411 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today, moving offshore Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns late in the week, lasting through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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High pressure the main surface feature today impacting the region, resulting in predominately dry conditions. Hi-res models still hinting at potential convection over the mountains this afternoon where the best surface convergence lines up. But with a drier airmass in place as noted by the much lower PWs today than yesterday, really not expecting much in coverage. Plenty of sun will allow for temps to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to control the weather of the Mid Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Patchy fog will be possible west of I-95 tonight but no problems foreseen. Wednesday afternoon could again see isolated thunderstorms over the mountains. Lows tonight 65-70. Highs Wednesday again 90. Change comes to the area Wednesday night to usher out meteorological summer/welcome met autumn as a cold front slides down from the northwest. Models are showing a line of moisture moving through the CWA overnight but severe parameters are minimal. My confidence level on POPs in summer convection several periods out is that it`s risky to go higher than chance... especially given how dry we`ve been lately. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front will likely be directly overhead early Thursday morning and will continue pushing southeastward through the day. Thus may see a period of morning showers/rumble of thunder associated with frontal passage. Upper trough and associated energy does lag behind through the day, so some pop-up showers and perhaps a storm remain possible into the afternoon hours. Highs mainly in the 80s. Upper trough persists overhead into Friday with large ridge of surface high pressure building in from the northwest. This should lead to largely dry and pleasant weather from Friday and through the Labor Day Weekend. Will continue to monitor tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico for this time period, but the upper trough overhead and surface high building into the region are currently expected to suppress any system to the south and east. The upper trough will give way to a building upper ridge again heading into next week. Highs generally 70s/80s Friday through Sunday, warming back into the 80s area-wide for the beginning of next week. Lows pleasant in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period. Patchy fog may develop tonight at CHO/MRB. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic. Predominantly VFR expected Thursday through Saturday. Only restrictions would come in some patchy fog at night/early morning and any scattered showers/thunderstorms Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Generally sub-SCA conditions on all waters. A cold front will push through the waters Thursday morning which may cause thunderstorms to develop. Small Craft Advisory may be needed Thursday afternoon and through Friday with increasing northerly winds behind front.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels will run around a half foot above normal through tonight. Tidal flooding is not currently expected, but water levels are forecast to reach Action Stage at Annapolis and Washington DC/Alexandria during the early morning high tide cycles.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 29) Site Rank Average Temperature DC3 80.6 Balt 14* 77.3 IAD 3 77.4 * tied with 1937, 1944, 1994, and 2006
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Update...SEARS Previous Discussion...Woody!/MJM

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